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 Could you please explain your opinion more in detail? 
 I expect relay runners to give up at one point. I see relays going down all the time. Some never come back. 

What kind of incentives exist for keeping a relay up for 30-40 years?
None.

In social media users want to see the posts they’ve done and the reactions. With nostr relays that is not working out reliable. 

Your posts, answers, images etc. could all be gone tomorrow and maybe come back the day after or never come back. Maybe the relay which connected you with a friend goes down and then no nostr app shows your friend profile anymore…

That‘s my thought for the social media part/usage of the protocol… which is unusable for ‚normie‘ social media users (normies = not interested in decentralization). 
 Any new thoughts on this? Have you seen the "pay to post" relays (using zaps, I think)? Could those provide enough incentive to continue running a relay? 
 Saw it. Maybe yes. Seems to work for some. 

I think that #nostr currently as that option for social media postings is just mimicking the past (old style of internet-accounts with a centralized database, media streams, opinion sharing…) as any new technology first just copy the old dying blueprint. 

See e. g. the first cars - built after the blueprint of a horse-buggy.

It‘s so far a really small bubble of hyped bitcoiners using it as twitter-clone with mostly custodial micropayments.

Not thinking that 4chan, insta, twitter or tictoc goin to die soon or anything like that but maybe the main benefit of nostr is something else that crystallizes out of the blue in a few years. Backend for ecash, tor or a coinjoin substitute. Some layer for something I can‘t even comprehend or imagine right now. 

It’s nice to control your own data in a time where data is controlling you but  remember that most people do not care about their data … until it is too late. Not at all. Only ~ 1 % of humanity has even any interest in privacy. 

I have no idea what nostr really is what nostr can become in the future and it might be far far away from it‘s current state/usage/look.