Today I was listening to one of my favorite macro podcasts talk about the Fed's meeting from yesterday. One of the best interviewers in the space, and one of his top interviewees.
And I couldn't finish it. So boring.
They were literally noting the tiniest details. The Fed's prepared statement didn't mention a rate cut in September. And then Fed chairman Powell's prepared press talk also didn't mention it. However, when asked about a September rate cut, he flipped to a page where he had a prepared statement indicating that yeah they're kind of leaning toward a September rate cut, and read it.
So they were like, "Huh! I wonder what the significance of that is. He had a prepared written statement about September, but only when asked!"
People literally judge the Fed chair's body language, facial movements, details like whether he has a prepared statement for a given question, etc. Omg.
For my work I need to note the basics of what the Fed said and all that, like the 3-minute summary of all that stuff. But the sheer excitement that these people had when discussing details like that for an hour was so banal. It seemed like satire.
Zoom out.
https://m.primal.net/Jlff.jpg
I hope no one is making trades based on their eye movements
they totally are
and on a certain short-term basis those might actually be great trades
their behaviors actually rational on a short-term basis perhaps
that's the terrifying thing actually
too much power in too few hands
There's no telos under a fiat regime, just loyalty to the cartel, and the loyal cantillionaires would never call out the emperor for not having any clothes, so they spend time circle-jerking over how gorgeous and brilliant and subtle he is.
Really this is just one great example of the reality of our “daily programming” compared to the things we should actually be paying attention to. Our information networks are incredibly broken
So they’re under the assumption the fed controls the economy with a plan and you’re not?
I think really what she's saying is that she thinks longer term than the people who are obsessed with every facial tick
it would seem prudent to backtest them.
listen to episodes and check if all this predicting and interpreting had any merit.
I would bet it has no connection to reality whatsoever and ultimately is just a weird form of entertainment for a weird group of finance nerds.
I felt the exact same when I was listening to Axel Merk on Adam Taggarts show. Whilst I enjoy some macro views my eye rolls are way more predominant.
Keen to know what pod you were listening to @LynAlden
Wealthion was my favourite show, that is where I learn about Bitcoin, Adam invited @LynAlden and briefly discussed. I went down the rabbit hole and now I cannot listen to those shows. I just want to scream at those guys and wake them up.
Eventually they will get there.
I hear you. I highly respect the macro trad fi guys as there is no doubt alot of them know the system like the back of their hands, but their biggest downfall is the ego. It's really hard for people to not be open minded and come to conclusion things move on and form into other things beyond their knowledge.
I usually stop listening to people that make outlandish claims about a subject they haven't really done any research on
This is my favorite part about bitcoin. The decentralization removes this human element from the monetary policy.
Nobody should have that much power.
What are your favourite macro podcasts?
Didn't they used to attach a bunch of significance to what pin Yellen was wearing on her lapel when she gave a statement?
reading tea leaves as usual?
Apparently Tether has become a seagull in the highway of the treasury market.
At some point some these people have to ask, to what degree are you dissecting the signal and beating / ahead of the machine vs completely at its beck and call.
There's a point in the Mandibles near the start where the son is hearing the news readers report on the US default, and he notes that the newsreaders are excited. Not because the news is exciting, but because it's their job to read the news and it's exciting to have something important to read even if that important thing is terrible.
Fed watching is astrology for fintwits.
they watch because it actually matters
And astrology may have some legitimacy due to seasonal effects on childhood development.
I think the main problem with fed watching is that the fed doesn't even know what it's going to do since it's a reactive agency.
"what is the King's mood today? it is of great import to my life!"
this is how dictators have always been treated
that is not a sign of freedom
"Jack and the Boring-talk"
Yup. That’s me whom stopped reading about financial news a while ago (I kept your paid newsletter for a while even though I wasn’t reading it anymore).
The macro stuff is so boring. 99.9999% of macro events have zero influence on my life.
I’m just here, looking at the big picture every couple of months or so, checking about the state of the financial markets, and I’m like : “So the fiat ponzi amplifier is still up and running? Ok. I’ll continue DCA into BTC and check back in a few months.”
Even the non financial news have no meaning anymore. An ex-president and arguably leading presidential candidate in the US escaped assassination only due to sheer luck or fate. The assassination attempt was so egregious that about half of the USSS should have been investigated and probably fired. Yet NOTHING meaningful came out of it, nor will come out of it.
So I just look out for my family. I look out for my friends. I try to improve my life and body. I try to do the best, most meaningful work possible, and just wait for the next turning. The rest does not matter.
I enjoy having a general understanding of whats going on but stopped reading the tea leaves a while ago. Tech is deflationary & debt based money needs prices to rise forever. Accelerate.
#Bitcoin
Lol I wish people could just learn to focus on things they control.
I cant wait till this world of needing to understand the fed chairs facial expressions no longer exists
Idk, it's a joy to read j pow's facial expressions as long as I'm not gambling on the economic impacts of his thoughts at the time.
We just happen to currently have a pretty entertaining casino manager imo
Timaros is kinda boring. I didn't finish it either. But I will finish any and every interview with Danielle di Martino Booth about it; really get a kick out of that one
In 100 years, people will look back with incredulity at the fact that the world was attentively observing every word, gesture and move of the central planners without recognizing them for what they really are
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