The US economy has defied recession forecasts for years. Is this time different?
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A global stock sell-off on Monday sparked concerns of a possible economic downturn; Japan's Nikkei 225 stock index dropped more than 12%, its worst day of trading since 1987; Major US stock indexes plummeted more than 2%; Nvidia, a chipmaker, dropped as much as 14% before recovering some losses; Economists disagree on whether current economic conditions warrant serious concern about a possible recession or foretell resilience; Some analysts voice optimism, pointing to continued economic growth and a tendency for markets to overreact; Others caution of a monthslong labor market cooldown indicating wider economic weakness and a potential downturn; The disappointing jobs report on Friday triggered the stock market downswing; The unemployment rate climbed to 4.3%, the highest level since October 2021; Some economists doubt whether the rising unemployment rate signals a recession, attributing it to an increase in eligible workers rather than layoffs; Nancy Lazar, chief global economist at Piper Sandler, believes the uptick in the unemployment rate indicates a recession will take place before the end of the year; Goldman Sachs economists raised the probability of a US recession in the next year from 15% to 25%; The market downturn has triggered calls for a large interest rate cut at the Fed's next meeting in September; Economists believe an interest rate cut would not help the economy avoid an imminent recession; Market swings can bring about a recession due to overreactions and self-reinforcing feedback loops.

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https://abcnews.go.com/Business/recession-fears-loom-economy-time/story?id=112588104