Oddbean new post about login | logout 'One argument against the hit job theory came from the #Kremlin -friendly president of neighbouring Belarus, Alexander #Lukashenko "I know Putin, he is a calculating, calm and even a sluggish man, so i cannot imagine that he did that. It was a very rough, unprofessional job. very much unlike #Putin. But whatever happened, he will be blamed for that" What is the #WagnerGroup up to in #Belarus ? Answers in #TheGlobalJigsaw special on #Wagner after #Prigozhin https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3ct5hlb
We waited for a while for the dust to settle after #Prigozhin ’s plane crash in late August, before we recorded this episode of #TheGlobalJigsaw - for the clues to appear. Because when it comes to #Wagner ’s future, very little is out in the open. Tune in to hear the possible options for #Russia 's foreign policy muscle: https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3ct5hlb
Hear #BBC Monitoring’s #Russia , Middle East #MENA , #Africa , #Ukraine and military experts weigh in on the options on #TheGlobalJigsaw #Wagner special: 'the likelihood of not just Wagner, but any other private military company gaining as much power and influence within the #Russian system as Wagner and as #Prigozhin had, those days are gone. #Putin 's learnt his lesson and I don't think any company or individual will be able to gain that much power again' https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3ct5hlb
'The next commander of #Wagner would have to not only be able to control the actual manpower, they would also need to take over #Prigozhin ’s dealings with the Defence Ministry and the #Kremlin there are speculations that only someone from the Defence Ministry would be able to take control of Wagner. However, the #Wagnerites are not happy with that idea' What next for the #WagnerGroup , #Russia 's blunt instrument abroad? More on #TheGlobalJigsaw https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3ct5hlb
'there is one person who used to be sort of a liaison between #Russia 's Def Min and #Wagner . Andrey #Troshev , callsign Sedoy, was one of Wagner’s spokespeople… After the #mutiny he fled to another private military company called #Redut - it is essentially a military unit operated out of military bases and run by the Def Min.' A wagner 2.0 under #Shoigu ? What is the likelihood? Insights on #TheGlobalJigsaw https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3ct5hlb
Sedoy means grey haired in #Russian . #Troshev -a ret colonel- participated in the #Afghan , #Syrian and #Chechen conflicts. Yesterday #Putin met him - likely the closest to a confirmation of his significant role in the #Wagner story. 'absorption into #Redut is now one of the many options for Wagner’s future and we know that Troshev, alongside several other defectors, has been trying to lure over Wagner fighters into that military company.' https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3ct5hlb #TheGlobalJigsaw
'the vast majority of #mercenaries are very opposed to the idea of #Wagner being run by #Russia 's defence ministry. They specifically joined Wagner to not fight under the ministry's ranks. #Wagnerites seem to support a man known as Lotus, his real name Anton Yelizarov. Lotus is a wagner commander who was responsible for training of fighters in Molkino, in Krasnodar territory' More info on the #WagnerGroup 's future (if any) on #TheGlobalJigsaw https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3ct5hlb
Despite his personal connection to #Putin , #Prigozhin wasn’t seen by the #Wagnerites as a #Kremlin -linked #oligarch but rather as an outsider, as one of them. As a former convict himself, he spoke their language. 'Prigozhin was very popular with his fighters, because many were also very critical of the Kremlin, its policies and the #war , especially how it is being commanded by the Defence Ministry.' https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3ct5hlb
'Many people would have been jailed twice over for saying a fraction of what #Prigozhin said, however he managed to remain free, and for a very long period of time alive, while still remaining a very vocal critic And that drew a lot of people to him because many of them shared his views, wanted what they perceived as the truth to be spoken, but they could not speak it themselves. So there was prigozhin, this very loud person who would speak it for them.' https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3ct5hlb
'Option three is that #Russia 's defence ministry tries to supplant rather than absorb #Wagner 's activities in particular the Middle East and #Africa , which I would say were the main theatres of Wagner's operations.' 'Regarding their presence in Africa… there does not appear to be some sort of a race to take control of Wagner, the actual company. But it does seem to be some sort of an effort to take over wagner’s contracts and ties, even its militarty assets.' https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3ct5hlb
'Since prigozhin’s death many #Russian def ministry officials including Deputy Defence Minister #Yevkurov, army general #Surovikin - who has for a long time had ties to #Wagner -, military intelligence generals like Vladimir #Alekseyev and Andrey #Averyanov - they were all spotted in various #African states and it is likely to be some sort of a coordinated effort to renegotiate Wagner’s contracts and take them over for the ministry's pocket private military companies' https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3ct5hlb
'#Redut is a defence ministry operated #PMC . It is said to operate out of regular military bases, and its servicemen sign contracts directly with the ministry. The so called #Russian Expeditionary Corps is now being set up as part of Redut. (Rumoured to be set up to take over #Wagner ’s #Africa ops) Recently, according to grey zone they grew from 2500 fighters to a staggering manpower of about 20,000 men, with plans to recruit 20 thousand more.' Intrigued? Tune in: https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3ct5hlb
'Just before #Prigozhin ’s plane went down in fact, the very day before we heard reports that #Russia 's Deputy Defence Minister, Yunus-Bek #Yevkurov was in #Libya - he met with Commander #Haftar Who is one of the key figures in Libya.' Mire on tge race to take over #Wagner in the #MENA region and their operations in #Africa in the latest special of #TheGlobalJigsaw https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3ct5hlb
' #Haftar is a #Soviet trained military officer and an early ally of the former leader Muammar #Gaddafi. #Libya is seen as the main logistics centre for #Wagner ’s operations in #Africa . Their presence there has also been seen as a key tool for #Russia to counter, to spoil, to frustrate Western aims & policies, especially on the #energy & #migration front. Wagner’s presence in Libya has also given Russia considerable political and military clout' - #TheGlobalJigsaw https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3ct5hlb
'the presence of #Wagner operatives has been reported in #Libya -n media in several key #oil facilities under #LNA control (the army led by Khalifa #Haftar in the east of the country), and those installations include the Zilla #oilfield and the oil crescent ports' 'A day before #prigozhin ’s plane crash the #Russian Dep Defence Minister Yunus-Bek #Yevkurov visited eastern #Libya to reassure officials that Wagner fighters would remain there under #Moscow 's control' https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3ct5hlb
' #Russia maintains significant military presence in #Syria and its air power and political support over the past decade have been essential in aiding President Bashar Al #Assad and his govt and shifting the tide of the conflict. Over the years, #Wagner has been involved in combat missions and security for #oil installations in Syria.' 'there have been reports that #Syrian officials have already told Wagner to integrate with the Russian army or leave by October' https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3ct5hlb
A #Syrian website 'reported murky investments in the Syrian #oil and #gas sector, including stakes in Mercury and Velada. These are companies that were granted contracts for oil exploration in #Syria , approved by the Syrian parliament. And according to #Russian media outlets, these companies were owned by #Prigozhin' A few days ago Russian media reported that Velada has changed hands. According to Vyorstka, it is now owned by a 27 yo ex-policeman in St Petersburg' https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3ct5hlb
Another intriguing figure in #Moscow’s delegation to the Middle East is 'General Andrey #Averyanov - he is one of #Russia's top spies and he has been linked in reporting to many of the #assassination attempts, subterfuge, abroad that has been carried out by Russian military intelligence. In 2018 there was an assassination attempt on sergey #skripal , former russian spy, on British soil. And this general was linked to the elite #GRU group that carried out the operations https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3ct5hlb
When we talk about #Wagner in #Africa - the bridgehead for #Moscow was the Central #African Republic. 'in the #CAR there are about four leaders who were looking after #Russia 's interest - the defence contracts plus #intelligence and #security for president #Touadera The head of the Russia House who was this cultural node, but also overseen economic interests. There were the media operations too (Cont.) https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3ct5hlb
'for the #Kremlin to take this over means they have to consolidate their leadership and make sure that the #mercenaries are able to pledge allegiance to them. in #Mali's case for instance they haven't acknowledged that they are working with the #wagnergroup as far as they're concerned, it's the #Russian government, so they might be more open towards moving in #Russia 's direction in determining the leadership of the group on a local level.' https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3ct5hlb #TheGlobalJigsaw
'in the #CAR or are there would be a bigger stake and it felt as if the presidency was quite comfortable with the #mercenaries who are already present because they have already built up relationship with them. In some ways symbiotic, but also parasitic. These are people who have already known the terrain, what it is that these leaders want. its lucrative on both sides. https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3ct5hlb #Wagner #prighozin #TheGlobalJigsaw
'But ultimately it is also about a bigger partnership with #Russia because in as much as the #Wagner group is operating at the behest of the #Russian government, it's different from having an actual government to government deal.' 'the groups that are sort of affiliated with the #Prigozhin #propaganda machinery - Yerewolo, the collective of the defence of the military in #Mali , there is also Galaxea National in the #CAR (cont.) #TheGlobalJigsaw https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3ct5hlb
'their messages are also spreading out to the wider region, particularly Francophone #African countries. But any people who feel a sentiment of Panafricanism is what brings them together. But this is a radical form of PanAfricanism - they had been trumpeting support for the #Wagner group, for the #Kremlin 's geopolitical interests in the region and even drumming up support for #Russia throughout the #Ukraine conflict https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3ct5hlb #TheGlobalJigsaw
' #Wagner is no longer fighting in #Ukraine as a separate unit according to the Ukraine's military intelligence… And Wagner was actually one of the most efficient army units in #Russia. Wagner was better equipped than some of the regular Russian army units - it had his own tanks, air defence, aircraft…You can actually tell a lot about Wagner from what happened in #Bakhmut Wagner was ready to sacrifice as many lives as possible for its military goal… https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3ct5hlb #TheGlobalJigsaw
'They would send small infantry groups to try to attack #Ukrainian positions. And if these groups were killed, they would send another group and then another. So eventually, they succeeded in capturing #Bakhmut , but this came at a very big price. According to some reports, #Wagner lost half of its personnel - they started with 50,000 and ended up with half of that. https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3t5hlb #TheGlobalJigsaw
' #Wagner is also known for its cruelty towards #Ukrainian s… This included women, children, elderly people, but of course, this is not the only #Russian unit to have killed civilians in #Ukraine .
As #Wagner built a reputation for cruelty abroad, its popularity skyrocketed back home, in #Russia 'At that time, wagner’s presence exploded online. Many fan groups appeared on social media, online marketplaces started selling knock off memmorabilia, like patches, flags, T shirts, etc. wagner recruitment ads for the first time appeared on #Russian streets. So outside of TV and maybe state newspapers, wagners presence grew exponentially' #TheGlobalJigsaw https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3ct5hlb
' #Poland , #Latvia and #Lithuania all share a border with #Belarus and they all took measures to increase border security. After reports emerged that #Wagner was being redeployed to Belarus, Lithuania closed two border checkpoints. Latvia and Poland sent additional forces to protect the border - Poland sent around 10,000 additional troops' https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3ct5hlb #TheGlobalJigsaw
'Then at the end of July, the #Polish PM announced that #Wagner was sending forces to the so called Suwalki gap, which is the Polish border with #Lithuania... #Poland remains a target for all kinds of #Russian intelligent activities. For example in August, there were around several hundred #Wagner recruitment posters that appeared in #Warsaw and #Krakow.' https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3ct5hlb #TheGlobalJigsaw
'So as long as Western weapons keep making their way to #Ukraine through #Poland, there will still be these kinds of attempts at destabilisation in Poland, be that through #Wagner or through disinformation or any other kinds of activities.' 'Wagner was one of hundreds of entities that #prigozhin had his hands on, ranging from private military companies to #propaganda to catering, which is where he made a lot of his money, to construction.' https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3ct5hlb #TheGlobalJigsaw
'you can look at the assets that really mean something to #Russia , there's two main areas. Its #propaganda and media operations and the guns for hire… There will be a real fight within the #Russian state to gain control of these assets… following the mutiny. We saw that his media holding patriot and the 11 websites under that brand name ceased operating so essentially access was blocked. By the Russian media regulator' https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3ct5hlb #TheGlobalJigsaw
@348f4b7b This is really interesting - I thought that Putin's failure to deal with Prigozhin was odd and made him look weak. But I guess he was just carefully putting all the pieces into place, readying the defense department to slip into Wagner's position..
@5be5a387 looks like it - those two months were used efficiently, by the look of it, although the CAR handover doesn't seem 'sorted'...
@348f4b7b Maybe they will starve them of materiel? And bring in new troops with assets?
@5be5a387 a few months back they said to have rotated some Russians out there and said to have recruited in Libya and Syria... they have a man on the ground trusted by wagner structures to take over and Touadera's trip to Macron showed the CAR might push its own plan and is to be handled more carefully... again as all thoughout they are steps ahead in the chess game
@348f4b7b You mean, they won't go the Russian way? And how can the west support them, and thereby tacitly support Wagner? We all know what they are. We can't win this by becoming like Russia, we can't win this by ignoring them. We are not in a good place.
@5be5a387 them pretending sitting on the fence might bring some benefits although not too much space for manoeuvre as wagner is said to be part of the president's security detail...
@5be5a387 this is a possibility too - although they are relatively self-sufficient in the CAR, for example
@348f4b7b Derna. Wagner was always on the side of maximum harm.
@5be5a387 a deep sea port in a warm sea is clearly on tge wishlist... the Syrian port is relatively small and under def min control. Plus Italian papers too have accused them of being involved in people tradficking/smuggling in Libya...