Let's try this again...
Current #macro conditions are almost perfect for a non-recessionary dovish Fed pivot in mid-September.
The closest example in recent history is the mid-1990s Fed rate cuts, which didn't lead to--or coincide with--a major US recession.
Rather, the easing conditions helped initiate and support what would later become the famous/infamous dot com bubble of the late-1990s.
A weak (but non-recessionary) economy and central bank #QE is the perfect combination for rising risk assets (and especially, #bitcoin) in the coming quarters.
Just my opinion, of course. Feel free to disagree and side with the Doom and Gloomers... of which there are many... most of whom don't actually manage money... or manage it well. 🙃
Cheers.
Can’t think of a greater responsibility than managing people’s money.
A Doctor - yes but money is a different beast.
Manage it poorly & you can hurt a persons health significantly.
Much respect to you Jeff. 🫡
I do what I can. 🤝
I partly came back to Nostr because of your bold move off X.
Keep sharing. It is much appreciated.
🍻
Here’s a thought though. BTC is not a “risk asset”.
Hmmmmmmm🧐🤔🤔🤔🤔🤔🤔
But perception is reality I guess. For now.
Correct, for those who understand it.
But the vast majority of market participants still don’t understand #Bitcoin and still consider it to be a risk asset.
Yup. And that is our super power.
Perceived Safety in Plato’s cave is comfortable. Until it isn’t.
Samesies. Don’t know @Dr. Jeff personally, but have always been a fan of the optimism, education, and level headedness. Only see him build others up. Much needed in this broken world 🫡
Right … because some need that.
Others of us see the world as it is and work. Theoretically works for some.
When walking through fire 🔥 daily it pays to be prepared. 🔥
Yep same here. Looks like the quality of posts in nostr as well as the UI has increased significantly since I returned.
We're #blooming here Jeff, no doom in sight 🤙
Lotta love for that looming liquidity
I would understand this a lot better if there were 100 replies with dreamcatcher-style lines on charts. j/k. Encouraging analysis.
I don't know enough about the economic machinery as you do, but as an aside, would it make sense that the Treasury would want rising asset prices = larger capital gains tax receipts?
i think treasury and fed are deathly afraid of significant asset price declines and will step in with printing / liquidity
How fast or slow do you think they lower rates?
Hard to say. Depends on the data.
I believe over at The Bitcoin Layer they believe it likely that the first cut will be 50 bips
I hope you’re right Dr. Ross! I heard there have been 18 rate cutting cycles, and 7 times have been non emergency cuts. Hope we fit in there, but the jobs and unemployment data is a bit scary now.
Lobo Tiggre is a great follow if you want an honest “doom” take. I love him, but I love your stuff too!
I am prepared for either outcome. Majority out of fiat, where it’s safe. But I’ve got a smal hoard of dollar shitcoins in case it goes the other way, ready to BTFD.
What other methods are there to hedge the coming months?
Let’s get you and @Magoo in a nest
I’d love to. But I still haven’t figured out how to work nests. 😂
Boomer
#HiveTalk >>>>> everything else
I am old.
Jeff, you know who Ace of Base is. We’re all the same age.
that resonates Dr J and the rumors of this recession have been exaggerated since last year. the data and the 2-year yield move seem to guarantee a cutting cycle which should help normalize real estate. that said the employment / wage and savings rate / delinquency figures have deteriorated so curious how you're thinking about demand. are you basically thinking that recessions typically need a shock to catalyze and that the lower-end consumer doesn't really drive the bus on overall growth?
Indeed, the bitcoin price is highly correlated with US M2, which is ticking up...
And even more correlated with global M2, which is also increasing again.
as with all things ... patience rewards
It used to help the economy, but nowadays cutting rates inflates prices of everything, and does little else.
Oddbean new post about login | logout