Oddbean new post about login | logout @b870d4c8 @a8a3ca9d @d4b01ab1 @ee4cb8b5 @02439a38 Because of Corbyn's ambiguous flip flopping on Brexit since the referendum, Labour were already on notice. Theresa May knew Brexit would be a disaster, so trying to be sensible offered no clear differential between the #Tories & #Labour, hence her losing her wafer thin majority in 2017. Doris came along with 'Get Brexit Done' & put distance between the parties. Corbyn was all over the place, & support ebbed away to the charismatic Doris.
@0f342e77 @a8a3ca9d @d4b01ab1 @ee4cb8b5 @02439a38 yes I think voters found the Corbyn flipflopping very off-putting.
@b870d4c8 @a8a3ca9d @d4b01ab1 @ee4cb8b5 @02439a38 The night of that fateful TV debate, I felt something die inside of me! 😪 Labour activists were crushed & the stench of impending defeat never left us. All we could hear on the doorstep is "It's not Labour, it's Corbyn. Can't you get rid of him?" Blair Brown & Campbell warned him NOT to agree to an election, but because they suggested it, it seemed that's what pushed him over the edge into agreeing to have one. What a fuckin disaster!
@0f342e77 @a8a3ca9d @d4b01ab1 @ee4cb8b5 @02439a38 I think an election became inevitable when the SNP decided to vote for one. I remember doing the sums at the time. I agree going for an election was a huge mistake for all the non-tories.
@b870d4c8 @a8a3ca9d @d4b01ab1 @ee4cb8b5 @02439a38 No. It all depended on Labour votes. The DUP had a confidence & supply arrangement with the Tories. The SNP were on course to wipe out Labour, so agreed. Jo Swindon believed the Lib Dems could win so she too fell for the Tories demand for an election, but it still wasn't enough. After warnings from Blair, Brown & Campbell, this made Corbyn bite back & agree to the election in September 2019. It signalled the end for #Labour. 🤷🏾♂️
@0f342e77 @a8a3ca9d @d4b01ab1 @ee4cb8b5 @02439a38 The Tories were voting for the election, as was DUP, and with libdem and SNP votes parliament was bound to support the call for an election.
@b870d4c8 @a8a3ca9d @d4b01ab1 @ee4cb8b5 @02439a38 It all depended on #Labour mate. If you remember, the #Tories didn't even have a majority, & it needed a ⅔ parliamentary majority to change Cameron's 5 year fixed term parliaments. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-blair-idUSKCN1VN0RT
@0f342e77 @a8a3ca9d @d4b01ab1 @ee4cb8b5 @02439a38 oof I forgot about the two-thirds rule. Sorry for wasting your time and I appreciate you putting me right.
@b870d4c8 @a8a3ca9d @d4b01ab1 @ee4cb8b5 @02439a38 No worries mate. Like yourself, I'm here to share knowledge & to learn too. #Corbyn showed how useless he was for falling for the trap. What happened on 13th December 2019, is exactly as Blair predicted on 2nd September. Egged on by #Momentum & their belief they could mobilised the greatest election campaign force in history, they too believed Corbyn would win easily. In that moment, he proved what a naive political fool he was. 🙄