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 Productive immigrants tend to be against open borders, it's true.

But open borders combined with a generous *universal* (I stand corrected.) welfare state will tend to be less attractive to productive immigrants (they don't need the help and don't want to pay for it), and more attractive to the least-productive ones (they like the free stuff and don't pay for it). 
 That's actually probably the easiest way to filter for productive immigrants, actually. Ask them if they would prefer open borders or tightly-controlled borders and then let only the second group in.
😂 4D chess. 
 True enough, but perhaps not sufficiently so to prevent social welfare being useful politically.

Social welfare here is far from universal; there are interviews, tests, social worker's discretion, and, for many categories, a race requirement. (Germany may be different.)

It makes perfect sense when you view social welfare as a patrimonial system for vote-buying at the lowest cost. (Just as industry policy here is mostly grant-laundering at high cost).

Elites can still use social welfare to buy new immigrant voters as long as existing citizens can be excluded from it.

There is a level of economic disarray at which this will cease to draw, but the regime's other vital functions have probably imploded before that.

I encourage both tax avoidance and tax evasion to accelerate this, I admit.