Oddbean new post about login | logout Does it mean Trump has sixty percent chance of winning ( like more than 50 % ) OR it means he will get 60 % of votes ? #askNostr They Re two different things ! Is it not ? nostr:nevent1qqs85pcwfs48nuu5w8rdzmy8kc0s7uv4eel25p6fln5w7j3v9vh84rcpzamhxue69uhhyetvv9ujuurjd9kkzmpwdejhgtczyrmy0j2k35y4jm3j8lwsz39cute44t6a4fpln66ek5pwn8vs7sm8xqcyqqqqqqgcvat37
This only means that Trump has 60% of the bets
Than why is it called #prediction :-)
Because bettors put money predicting the outcome
I see - the question is " who will win" and 68 % of #sats here is saying Trump .. it doesn't imply he is leading by 30 points ..
Probably not, it will be closer, but remember this is betting, if the odds shorten but it's a "guarantee" win you'll keep getting money from the public. If it was purely betting efficiency, looking for expected value, money would be going to Kamala side until the odds even again. First election with prediction market around it will take time to have a good reading of it