Interesting thesis and I like it.  A couple of caveats:  if the big 3 miners collude it could pose some risks, though we've not seen that yet.  And bear in mind that while that each halving halves supply, but also halves security, and that will be something that needs to be addressed 10-20 years from now.  One way would be to increase fee bearing transactions in line with the hardware (disk, memory, network) of the day, and software capabilities.  Things that could mitigate this are stratumv2, ocean mining, utreexo, increased mempool.  But chain split is bigger risk than reorg for now.  Still a bit of work to do before we can say btc replaces gold. 

 The mining problem is a completely different dynamic. The thing in reference here is the scaling problem of individual transactions. So I agree there are different concerns and considerations.

In fact, I think the mining problem is far more concerning both short and long term than anything to do with blocksize. But both are just technical hurdles, and all it’s takes in a little ingenuity to solve them. We’ve solved much harder problems and do not believe either will stop us. 

 Spot on! I see a light at the end of the tunnel regarding the distribution of block template production. Not so sure about scaling. 

 Sorry about the other comment, I've had a few of those today already. nostr:note100rpm393ltts9ny5kj499g0qupwd3rlvxrgpqluqw8mwflrl6wwqws9m5h 

 Also generally not that concerned about scaling. Because I genuinely suspect we don't understand the problem very well and also are applying a "retail credit cards" model to this that seems very likely to me to not be the direction this goes. I think the evolution of its use (also how we extend sovereignty/trust) will likely be different than we imagine it to be. 

 This is an astute observation. I agree. The solution will probably look different than everything on the table today.

But failing to plan is planning to fail so this is not a reason to stop working on the problem. 

 I agree and would never suggest to it wasn't something to direct energy toward. 

 it's all good, man 🤙  

 It’s mining-pools / block-template-creators that are the centralization risk, right? 

Individual (small or massive) *hashers* can always point their hash rate elsewhere.