PIMCO's Tiffany Wilding assesses the risk of a 'no landing' scenario for the US economy - IFA Magazine
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Tiffany Wilding, Managing Director and Economist at PIMCO, assesses the risk of a 'no landing' scenario for the US economy. Recent economic data indicators suggest that a soft landing for the US economy may not be as likely as some investors believe. While the chances of a soft landing have increased, there are risks of growth stagnation or inflation reigniting. The current economic cycle shares some ingredients of a soft landing, such as a post-pandemic recovery in global supply chains and labor supply. However, productivity has stagnated in developed markets, and the risks of inflation reaccelerating and recession remain elevated. Recent macro developments, including the January payroll report, raise concerns about inflation. The US economy's growth momentum and wage inflation have not decelerated as expected. The Federal Reserve is still forecasted to begin cutting rates around midyear, but progress on inflation in 2024 may be slower than in 2023. If current macro trends don't reverse, the risk of a 'no landing' scenario may increase. Investors should stay mindful of the risks in either direction.

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https://ifamagazine.com/pimcos-tiffany-wilding-assesses-the-risk-of-a-no-landing-scenario-for-the-us-economy/