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 why does it have to be a relay and not something like moderated communities?

but also, to the average person, that doesn’t have much value to them really 
 Because clients these days are generally getting worse and thing trend will likely continue until they are so bad that the VCs shoving they're fiat-minded BS into the system get bored and GTFO of the nostr system.  
 It’s moderated communities on dedicated relays.

Think about concentric circles expanding from the individual > household > family > street > neighbourhood > community > suburb > city > state > nation.

That’s where this ends up. Heavy at the start and decreasing as it goes further from the person.

The “global town square” is a fiat concept and a relic of big tech social media and the nation state era. That’s not what #nostr will replace. 

It will realign our interactions back towards how we operate in meatspace. This time where it’s predominantly a singular small community won’t last. 
 But why dedicated relays?
Except if you want to make anyone that wants to start a 5-person community pay for overpriced relay hosting 
 Compute moves in cycles like everything else. Centralised > decentralised > centralised > decentralised.

Mainframes (C) > PCs (D) > Cloud (C) > …

Nodes is the next wave. Just as people cut cords on cable TV, they’re going to cut streaming - likely when the economy goes to shit and western governments take their censorship too far.

This will be done on home media servers. You can get a Dell server at home today fully decked out for $300 - project this out 10 years. Umbrel/Start9 are the Napster of this wave - it’s only gonna get easier and better to run this shit yourself.

It’s hard to see when the tech today is finicky and niche but Nostr will be baked in. Users wont know they’re spinning up relays, they’ll just be creating groups for these concentric circles and the relays will be baked in to the software.

The nostr.com.au relay we run by this time ought fulfil the nation level usecase. We’ll be the new mainstream so people will prefer their lower level localised relays but use the higher levels just for info. 
 You forgot the part where you get the average person having interest in running a server and learning how to do that. 
 Does the average person have interest in using a PC?

How about the cloud?

Running a server at home will be no different to operating an iPhone today in 10-15 years.

It will be so cheap and so easy, and Gov will piss off so many people who will be broke, that the trajectory is already inevitable.

Lower your time preference brother. 

Nostr is your opportunity for Semisol Jr and Semisol III and IV and V to stand on the shoulders of an OG. 
 Only if there is a tangible benefit that they can see and care about. “What if”s don’t matter until they happen to a user. 
 Average people are not invited  
 This isn't aimed at the average user. The average user will be invited to other people's communities. 
 The average person will be the main source of new communities though. 
 Anyone with a computer connected to the Internet, can host a relay. Also, many people already pay for a remote server and can just run a relay on it. 
 An average user would need to figure out:
- how to do port forwarding
- getting a static IP
- getting a domain name
- configuring a reverse proxy
- installing and compiling strfry
- writing their own relay policy scripts

Pretty easy isn’t it? 😆 
 Plenty of these steps aren't necessary for plebs. I'm far more concerned about security when user's host applications. Even most developers suck balls as basic application security let alone network security. 
 Well that's too bad then looks like it's not for the average user. 
 Relays are moderated communities, by default. 
 I’m referring to the NIP. 
 We had that. They sucked. 
 Maybe because it wasn’t well thought out? :) 
 Yeah, was missing relays. 😉 
 Don’t see how relays fix anything. Except it allows developers to be lazier by going back to the centralized model. 
 Relays are the part that is most-decentralized. I have 8 of them, on five devices. Mostly my own devices. 
 they aren’t in communities

there’s 1 community relay and that’s it

it makes things easier, because it’s centralized, but good things are never easy 
 No, I run three community relays. 
 Uh… can you read? Thanks.

I’m saying that one community = one relay. 
 Yes, in this format. With NIP-29 relays, you can use n relays for n communities, but it adds some event overhead. 
 Again, with that NIP, groups are single relay, and there’s no transparent migration path. A group should be defined by its owner, not by the relay it is on.

Also, all of these approaches are horrible for clients like @jb55's Damus as they maintain a local DB. There is no way to sync event deletions by admins, and local caches lose all benefit as they need to make round trips to the centralized community relay to get the latest state of everything.

Relays were designed as data stores, a subset of all events. The construction of views on top of these relays were and always have been the responsibility of a client on top. 

A deletion for example, it should still function in clients even when relays don’t give a shit and do the bare minimum of storing events.

Relays support it because there’s no reason for them to store deleted events. 
 So what is the most decentralised option for communities? 
 A better version of the moderated communities NIP.
Admins can keep a local backup of notes. 
 Some relays refuse to respect deletes.

I'm not interested in relays that are stores of all events. Most events are junk.
I prefer relay-side data transfers and the outbox model.

I don't work for Will. 
 Oh also it breaks clients that use any form of caching service like Primal.

Unfortunately, local or remote caches are one of the few ways Nostr will stop using gigabytes of mobile data.