Definitely a lot of nuance and caveats... Lightning receiver privacy has always been bad. Amount privacy also not guaranteed because of probing like you said.

Self custody Lightning can be more/less private than on-chain depending "how" (with or without LSP) you use it and "who" you want to be private from (counter parties, third parties, or both)

i.e.
Using unannounced channels gives privacy from third parties (general public)...but not counter parties (the user youre transacting with) and ironically destroys plausible deniability.
Wrapped invoices with Zeus gives receiver privacy from counter parties, but not third parties (Zeus).

How most use lightning (with custodians and LSPs 80-90% according to nostr and wallet downloads) it offer similar privacy to a traditional bank. It gives privacy from the general public, but not the custodian/LSP.

Noticed you are using Wallet of Satoshi for Nostr. If you're using lightning custodially (so you've already accepted the risk of being rugged), and you are concerned about privacy, you should consider using Ecash for that since it is a strict improvement. Privacy from counter parties AND third parties.

https://zapalytics.com/ 

 Thanks for the detailed reply.
I am using WoS with nostr but I have recently set up an alby hub which is what had prompted me to do a deeper dive and understanding of lightning.

Currently my thinking is the best balance is a custodial solution like WoS for receiving and then your own node for larger balances you wish to hold on lightning without the rug risk.

That provides you a level if privacy hiding in the masses of a custodial app and reduces the number of parties who know your own node details to one large custpdian rather than everyone you share a lightning invoice with. Sending from your own hub is OK since sender privacy is better than receiving.

But I am only a week into this learning journey so maybe I have it all wrong 🤷‍♀️

Certainly a lot to learn.
Ecash might have to be next on the list. 

 A week, really? Seems like you know quite a bit already!

No problem. There is a lot to think about with lightning privacy. I'm sure I forget to mention stuff. 
Not to shill, but personally that's why I love the simple, yet strong, privacy that Monero offers (for self-custodial/permissionless transactions even if one doesn't want to stack it). Privacy from both counter and third parties and no gymnastics required for it like lightning.

For ecash I recommend Minibits wallet for Nostr since they give you a static lightning address you can replace your WoS one with

https://github.com/minibits-cash/minibits_wallet 

 I have a decent understanding of L1 bitcoin but set up a lightning node a week ago so started thinking about it more seriously. All credit for my understanding goes to this article: https://www.voltage.cloud/blog/lightning-network-faq/lightning-network-privacy-explainer

I will have a closer look at minibits thanks for the recomendation. I have it installed but never really played around with it.

It seems most bitcoiners seem so scared of being called a 💩coiner that they won't discuss the merits of monero. I do think it's telling that it is the coin of choice for dark net markets. Some may say bitcoins lack of privacy is not a concern but with increasing control exerted by the state I think it is crucial to think about.

The other problem is people being so scarred by fighting over the blocksize that to many discussions on what changes could be beneficial seem off limits.
 

 Hell yea 100% agree

Privacy is critical for this little experiment to succeed. That is one of the articles I read on my journey to get a better understanding of the state of privacy on lightning. I'm not partial to any particular tool. Whatever works well for the job I'll use. Right now that just happens to be Monero mostly. BOLT12 seems like a massive upgrade and solves many sovereign lightning privacy/UX issues. Once that gets more adoption I'm planning on giving it a chance. Looking forward to all the benefits that the FCMP++ upgrade brings to Monero too.

I could go on and on about the the cognitive dissonance of the holy blocksize limit and decentralization, but maybe another time. Nice chatting with you!

https://www.getmonero.org/2024/04/27/fcmps.html