Oddbean new post about login | logout My long-term Bitcoin concerns mostly revolve around apathy. What if not enough people care to self custody? What if not enough people care to enforce the rules by running nodes? What if not enough people care to put in the hard work seeking consensus for improving Bitcoin? The most important thing is that we continue discussing Bitcoin. The exchange rate is merely a SIGNAL that we have done well SO FAR.
Remember this guy? 😂😂😂😂😂 https://media.primal.net/uploads/e/78/a6/e78a629c8f35f78e7e48da544c6eab01e7abd6ec85618b5e0deb154b654e2c7d.mp4
I remember this one very well. Fortunately, Kamala Harris is looking after his best interests.
There is something wrong with Bitcoin if Bitcoin depends on people's attention and care for Bitcoin.
I think you haven't gone far enough down the rabbit hole. Bitcoin is ONLY it's people, it's consensus among the nodes run by users. Bitcoin is nothing but those individuals choosing software and running the code that is Bitcoin. If you're not doing it, if you're apathetic about it, you're relying on others and trusting their notion of the rules and the existing consensus. Bitcoin is us. Run by us. I agree with Lopp on this. The greatest threat to Bitcoin is a future of mainstream acceptance and capture of the ideology and changing what people think Bitcoin is and how it does it. If enough minds are changed and enough of them are running nodes, Bitcoin can be whatever we/they want.
I understand the fear of capture, but my point is the following: no one wants to lose money; I mean, the interest in a functional currency is natural and spontaneous. If Bitcoin is indeed a good or the best currency, then Bitcoin "takes care of itself," in the sense that massive interest will come naturally. Well, what if it needs attention and care to be a good money? Well, then this a problem, in my view.
Of course, Bitcoin may already be taking care of itself, but that is not the issue.
Worries me too, it still shocks me how often people have big amounts of their Bitcoin on exchanges. To anyone reading this: Self custody is easy Running a Bitcoin node is easy Take some time on a weekend to figure out how these things work, it's your money after all 🤷♂️ Also, if you're really just starting out, randomly click through mempool.space to get a good feel for how Bitcoin transactions work!
Bitcoin node? You talk about a wallet? Why would you be worried. It is a very personal problem of a person, if their money gets stolen. Why should I care, when I store my coins in my wallet?
I am concerned about mining and censorship. What happens if the US + EU + whk ever else the pressure in to it pass a law saying any mining company must only include transactions in their block that are to/from approved addresses? You must follow our Whitelisting/Blacklisting laws or you will be prosecuted.
u have any dubt that this will happen??? is already real. 1btc≠1btc. Leviatan can easily track once it lands on a exchange with kyc. Those btc are forever in the radar if we do not change base layer.
Monero fixes this. Or am I wrong?
but it is inflacionary. Is not for the same use.
What is the other use Bitcoin has? And no Monero is equal to Bitcoin and has a fix Maximum.
"Monero has a fixed emission rate, not a set maximum supply. Around May 2022, Monero's emission will drop to and permanently remain at 0.3 XMR per minute (0.6 XMR per block). This is approximately 1% inflation for the first year and will approach 0% inflation in future years. This tail emission allows for permanent incentives to secure Monero, even in the far future, while keeping inflation at a very low percent."
bitcoin is deflationary, preserves value. Monery is private, but does not preserve value. Despite being a low rate, is still inflationary. It just depends of what u want.
You mean like gold fails to preserve value because of supply inflation?
supply inflation and fake supply inflation😂 like the etfs from btc.
It's a big world out there and people can mine in other countries if this happens.
I hope that it is a big enough world that mining can stay sufficiently decentralized. Not hard to imagine many different fututes though where censorship comes in to play. I can imagine a future Trump asking why Chinese transactions are included in American blocks. Blockspace sanctions could be a reality. It will be an interesting dynamic that is for sure.
Probably then other blockchains would just gain attractivity. I mean it is opensource. So any blockchain can take the lead at any time. When one chain gets a hit others can profit of this.
I can see how having enough money to know you've payed or can for where you live next month might feel. You are here displaying it But as a long time bitcoiner who is in the opposite position I see it from a different perspective
I hope this apathy will happen only once we learn to hyper-efficiently channel and harness energy due to mining incentives.
re: self custody…You have Burnett and Saylor going on the OnRamp podcast saying self custody isn’t practical as bitcoin the asset scales due to transaction fees.
TradFi folks don't care about sovereignty and will gaslight us into believing it's impossible. I'll be pushing back on those narratives in the coming weeks.
It is a fact that most won’t be able to self custody. The ability to self custody will be there for the people that want it. Good luck convincing newcomers they should care about it, which is the real challenge not convincing them it’s possible to do it.
Then most will remain enslaved.
There are worse things than using custodians or ecash
This optimism should be shared with myriad individuals who have lost their entire net wealth from illegal gov’t seizures (e.g. EO6102), cancelled by NGO gov’t proxies for “unpopular views”, or theft/embezzlement via custodians like FTX/MtGox/et al.
But isn't this then no even a real problem maby. People who care about soveirnety, will have their own wallet. Such who do not will not. Bitcoin will therefore has its users. I mean Bitcoin is a nish produce, as gold is. When it would want to get out of this nish at i?any point in time, there is big change in the protocol needed. A product needs to change to get more adaption.
… or the ‘situation’ could change incentivizing mass adoption. Plethora examples of mass adoption post societal changes exist regarding previously undervalued/underutilized technology. “No force on earth can stop an idea whose time has come.” - Victor Hugo Paradigm shifts create relevancies for unknown variables.
When people ask say the 3 most important rules of Bitcoin are... 1. 2. 3.
Same. I'm especially worried about the socialist/communist type of apathy. Sidenote: the main power edge of Nazism is fear. The main power edge of Communism is apathy.
Nazism? You talk about nationalism?
Bitcoin failed, only Monero keeps the mission alive, all you and your maxis have to offer ir NGU.. When people of the system wants they will build more nodes than plebs in a short time and will fuck your consensus..
I see that Monero is stronger on privacy space. But the attack you are saying can be done on Monero or on any blockchain. The problem is, which country has the money to build up this 51%? It is not as if buying 1Mio Bitaxe would be the same cost as buying 1000. At some point there is no chip on the Market and the state to commit the attack would need to build new chip fabrication to execute this attack. So this problem increases security for Bitcoin extremely. On the other side normal miners get less rewards, when a state goes big in mining, which incentivizes current miners to lower their mining capacity, which weakens security.
What makes you say Bitcoin failed?
Mining centralization, LN usage custodial, no privacy...
As long as there is the option to do differently within the current system, or ways to improve that on a different layer, I don't understand why you'd classify this as a definitive failure. You're still free to mine on the network, without having to ask for permission. You're still free to run your own node / set up a better solution. And as for privacy.. Bitcoin never was intended as a solution for privacy issues.
Do you even read satoshi notes on foruns about the implementations he was trying to implement on bitcoin that was implemented on monero? https://image.nostr.build/734bb5301d46a3600132d6b0df758cddfb28ccd1d99989a4bf98ad3088e842ff.jpg
That's great. There was clearly an intention to improve upon the privacy aspect. However, this being a way to improve upon Bitcoin, rather than being at the core of Bitcoin since release, shows that it was not main issue that was being solved for here. Monero may have gotten better privacy, but at what cost? Surely a trade-off was made.
The discussion of Bitcoin in this way in the future is what we today call “political discussion”, though that won’t be a fitting word in the future.
No apathy here. Next month — “Nodevember” — I will help my 50th pleb run their own node. For two years I’ve been refurbishing old PCs by turning them into Start9 nodes. I’ve sold (at cost) 48 at my meetup and neighboring meetups. I sold three this week. Two individuals drove 1.5 hours to attend a meetup and claim their new refurbished node. So far, it appears that if I build self-sovereign nodes, bitcoiners will come.
Bitcoin is a tool of humanity. Nothing more. Nothing less. Despite being a force multiplier that can amplify, it is not essential to progress. This, combined with numeric constrainta over time will contribute to its decay against humanities other advancements assuming continued growth.
Absolutely. 100%. I hope people recon the value of self custody before it is too late. My concern on this regard are the ETFs!!
A concern I have is that we are all just pawns doing the legwork of bringing a digital currency to network effect only too have it co-opted and enslave humanity. But there seems to be many people in this community that have good intentions. Just hope we're not being played.
We can’t live by worry or ifs. Bitcoin is filled with and surrounded by good ppl at every layer openly discussing the real issues, resources activities and putting in the work. All those who will benefit from strong money won’t need to do and know it the way early adopters have to. They will enjoy economic equality and grow in self sovereignty for the betterment of humanity. Embedding self custody, running nodes, enforcing the rules, seeking consensus and discussing the bitcoin is our contribution. Our proof of work will be seen tomorrow. We fix the money so our ppls of tomorrow can live in equity.
I think given that we're still early in the adoption cycle, lots more people will come in and get "radicalized" in terms of becoming bitcoiners. I.e. If we're at maybe 5% adoption, even once we're at 90% and most people don't run nodes or self-custody, the group of people that will should increase a lot. What are we at 15k-20k nodes? I think that will only increase. Bitcoin has this weird thing where once you *really* get into it it starts changing your views. And thanks to all the great bitcoin education out there, more people will go down the rabbit hole.
I think as there continues to be ongoing education, there will be increased competencies and best practises for self-custoding your Bitcoin. The whole Bitcoin experience is a paradigm shift and requires learning the technology. From learning what a hot and cold wallet is. Running a node or not, UTXO management, it can be a lot for people entering the space. Though, I find once people go down the rabbit hole, they will became incentivized to explore better ways to secure their Bitcoin. For they will have come to the "true realization" that they are holding the most scarced asset in the world. 👊
I like to think “how does any idea stay alive”. I orange pilled myself after reading grokking bitcoin. I think a lot of religions spread through the distribution of “holy texts”. The 7 stages of self custody by Jameson Lopp would be a killer title 🙂
https://image.nostr.build/f75b52a42301c4c03f1e172e5a418a0982f0404df1718947d8625a54aad782ea.jpg nostr:nevent1qqs8dnpzy3pr98jts847azqrrml7uf5ls9cmmcye6fdhkpg0f83sxyspz4mhxue69uhhyetvv9ujuerpd46hxtnfduhsyg8h9rv7decysdvwwzfs7h9xfvyhwuxe38xds6z5lescak5u3gupqcpsgqqqqqqsdkc3au
A most likely problem will be the education level in decades to come. If 95% of users don't understand the system, core values or incentives their whole world is build around, then they won't care to contribute to decentralization, privacy or freedom!
