Oddbean new post about login | logout Many of my friends have been preferring to own an S&P index and rent as opposed to owning a house. I find myself in that understanding as well. Flimsy US Houses depreciate too much, too fast, and require too much regulatory upkeep (taxes, licenses, reviews, approvals to modify, insurance, not as liquid, etc) to be worth the hassle. If this is true for the rest of the US, my main concern is decentralization. It doesn't make much sense to have the entire population owning your most valuable 500 companies as their main asset. It's a lot easier to shape/control 500 companies than millions of houses. But maybe I am overthinking this. Is this a valid concern?
Someone told me about an asset that can't be controlled by the government at all. And it has better average returns than both the S&P and real estate. In other words: just buy #bitcoin
Kind of... The government can simply ban bitcoin in the same way they did with Gold in the 30s. There is some control in the table for sure. Tech doesn't solve politics. If you allow your government free rain, they can pretty much control anything you can think of.
* rein
reign. No can haz English eh?
To your point, this is the reason for a No KYC stash. Do not allow your government free reign. There always has and will be grey / black markets, and at times utilizing them can be the difference between surviving and not.
No KYC helps but does not solve it. Your government doesn't need KYC to figure out you have illegal (in their definition) bitcoin and put you in jail. You have to play politics. Signing off from politics just because you have non-KYC bitcoin is a huge mistake.
There is value in increasing the cost of enforcement. Be a bit more slippery than the average shmuck. On some level, playing politics is the burden of living in a "free" society.
When you do it fast and often enough, and more and more people begin doing the same, their stupid "laws" become unenforceable. I've seen it time and time again, and it's the way to go until their stupid system collapses.
I totally disagree. Thinking you "have to play politics" is what gives the politicians their power. Opt out and delete the fiat virus from your mind.
Politics is a shitcoin. Become ungovernable.
Wow, Edgy bro! Show us how "ungovernable" you are! Politics is power.
Government (Govern < Gubern < Kubern = steer) + (Ment < mentis = mind) voluntary mind control is not living. Yes, a lot of men waste their lives trying to manipulate other men. In the end their lives were wasted. This human life is not to be wasted by convincing other men to do your will.
Not complying is power. Playing their game is legitimizing them, it's the source of their power. Becoming ungovernable can be as simple as using cash and not paying taxes. Yes, I am a tax criminal, so what? Watcha gonna do? Good luck finding me, I'm behind 17 proxies.
Sure, they can ban it. But enforcing the ban is another story. Just look at China.
I hear that Bitcoin can't be controlled by the government but then I see news from time to time that some government has seized millions in Bitcoin from someone, or is selling off some Bitcoin it has seized... 🤔
If you store your recovery words properly, this is not a concern. Most of these seizures are from poor storage or people voluntarily transferring the coins. Poor storage = all recovery words in one location that can easily be found.
I was all about in the S P 500. Because I want to live off dividends. But then I realize that I need about $800000 in the S P 500 so they can Live off the dividends. Then when I realized that I dumped all my stocks and bought Bitcoin.
i would never rent a home. you gain zero equity. my current home, which we bought 10 years ago, has doubled in value according to zillow.
But what has happened to it's value in Bitcoin? I'm with you though, on owning versus renting.
i don't use bitcoin for my mortgage so it doesn't matter to me.
This. I personally do not like where I live and we don’t intend to stay for much longer, but when money printer went brrrrrrr a few years back we went ahead and locked up a nice/modest place with the lowest mortgage rate I’ve ever heard of. Place has gone up about 30-40% in monopoly money value since then. Mas 🌽 for us when we sell.
S&P 500 has quadrupled in 10 years. So from a purely economic perspective you've lost money by investing in property instead of S&P 500.
i'd have to pay 2-3x in rent to be able to live in a similar house and on top of that somehow still be able to invest in the SP500? there's no way. can't afford it. so the choice here is to hurt my family or to not hurt them. easy decision.
but folks don’t get approved for low-interest leverage (mortgages) to passively invest in index funds that lump sum at closing has a fair amount of compounding power value vs. passive index fund DCA my home is beating the S&P 500 over the past couple of years so timeline matters as well 🤷♂️ everyone’s situation is different and it really depends on one’s circumstances on what the best decision is for them
It has not doubled in value. The money has lost half its value. Aging real estate does not become more valuable. This is a fiat trick. The demonitization of real estate is going to be cataclysmic for the US because ppl think their sticks and sheetrock homes are getting more valuable. The underlying land may be more valuable as a scarce commodity but the b House itself is a liability that costs you money on am ongoing basis. That being said. I have a mortgage and prefer it to renting. But i also pay no property taxes on the bome and first acre and locked in a 2.25% 30yr fixed mortgage. It would take a lot to convince me to move. Plus, i like my neighbors for now.
That's the problem. It ONLY doubled. The S&P gained 2.7x without reapplying the dividends. And I am willing to bet it gave you more headaches than what a line in your Fidelity Account would do.
Most people aren’t 5x leveraged on their S&P holdings though (which is what a typical mortgage does to your equity check). You have to calculate returns to equity (not just headline home appreciation).
Good point. Why can't we get a mortgage on a massive S&P purchase?
You can use shares as collateral but it's riskier.
Right? I cant imagine living in someone else's home as an adult. Its home! The most personal space I get. It better be my own!
To each their own imo. My family now understands that me not having to pay rent means I can stack more bitcoin to secure the next generation of the family's financial future.
Or, just cash out, put the equity into bitcoin and rent. Your stack value goes up faster than your house under inflation
And have no home?
And live free from the possibility of government coming in and stealing it for any number of Godless reasons.
Hi, I am among the unfortunate victims of the FTX scam, a situation that has resulted in the loss of my entire savings, totaling around $20,000. The distressing aspect of this ordeal is not just the financial loss but the subsequent actions taken by SBF and Sullivan & Cromwell, the involved debtors. Following the success of their global heist, it appears that, rather than working towards justice for the affected customers, they are prioritizing their own interests, demonstrating a complete disregard for the well-being of those who have suffered. To witness such blatant exploitation of innocent people for personal gain is not only disheartening but also raises concerns about the moral and ethical compass of those involved. Their actions can only be described as mentally and spiritually sick, going beyond mere financial misconduct. The significance of this situation cannot be overstated for me, as the funds lost were an integral part of my financial stability. I am reaching out to you with the hope that you might consider extending a helping hand during this challenging time. Any assistance or guidance you could provide to navigate through the complexities of this situation would be immensely appreciated. I believe in the power of collective compassion and the willingness of individuals to make a difference in the lives of those facing adversity. I understand that you may have your own commitments and limitations, but even the smallest gesture can have a meaningful impact. Thank you for taking the time to read my plea, and I sincerely hope that you may find it in your heart to offer assistance during this trying period. Your kindness will not be forgotten, and I am immensely grateful for any support you can provide. appealforassistanceftxscamvictim@geyser.fund BTC : bc1q9vfmfwj6av9pxj50r6xyl652mwhqvw5ds86nw2
Do you live that principal for all other products you have? You own nothing right? Because gov can just come take it? I have had my home already for so many years. Years have passed with me owning a home. I still have it. I will tomorrow. Your fear will keep you from ever having a home. Literally homeless.
I get it, its an emotional argument for you and that is ok. My comment was simply to highlight the fact that there are equally viable alternatives and priorities. My home is my family. I have difficulty putting value in things I know can be easily taken from me and have been taken from me or my family before. We've lost our home to rot and mold, we've had theft of material possessions and funds. We had our local government force us to move after we said no to their offer, they decided to buy the road we used to get in and out of our property to force us out. So sure, it's fine to believe your property will forever be in your name after you die, and that doesnt prevent me from stacking sats and staying humble.
I know what the alternatives are obviously. I have rented before. You gave reasons why you dont like home ownership. I can tell you why renting has been horrible for me in the past too. Have actually moved from a rental property because of mold. All the reasons you list can happen if you rent though. Also, issues with your house is your responsibility. If you cant take that responsibility then dont do it surely. I get that. You say your home is your family. Now you are getting emotional with it. We are clearly talking about property. For me its about "having". I want to "have" a home. Not be in someone else's. I wont rely on another owning a home, so then I can rent what they own. The person you rent from is a home owner. Also, property doesnt stay in your name after you die. Thats not possible. Next of kin, family. If you were a fool and had a mortgage then the bank should get your property.
Bro, tf. He just said he lost his house like 3 times and your like, well now YOUR being emotional 🤣 i think the point hes trying to make is that your opinion isnt objectively true 100% of the time. Get this guy an eq test, shit
Well not 3 times, and we do own btw. This just became a hot mess of a misunderstanding. I'm obviously not making myself clear here haha. No offense taken 🤙
Then what stops gov from taking the house from the landlord you rent from? 😅 Owning is always better than not.
Owning a house is a bit like owning a car. It’s needs maintenance and there are associated running costs (bills, tax, etc) which can impact any equity increase (which is also constantly depreciating in real terms thanks to inflation). Renting can offload a lot of that to the owner. It’s also the perfect way to “register” with the government. It’s why govs all want you to own a house and do their utmost to try and support the property “market”. That all said, like a car, it feels like yours, and provides you some freedom and stability. It’s not always clear-cut that one is better than the other. I guess the ultimate is owning the land and the house, in a low/zero tax country, that’s all powered with personal solar/wind/hydro and has its own water source and some arable land. And perhaps a bunker and no/very few neighbours.
Why do people talk about homes and mention that need maintenance? This is so obvious. Stop treating a home like an investment. Its a roof for your family. Like why are you talking about equity? Lol
Because they degrade and fail over time. (Plumbing, electrics, windows, roof, damp, etc). But I agree. A roof over your head is important. But that can be either rent or own. And many countries don’t view it as an investment. It’s crazy in the UK and US where there’s an expectation that it will generate equity. (Demand high low supply etc). But I know in parts of Europe for example the price of the house has barely moved in a decade.
Key is that you bought it 10 years ago. Try doing the calculation now.
Yeah, at some point (and I think we’re there) people don’t have enough disposable income to make a fixed rate mortgage payment given the valuations and interest rate environment. Even if we return to low 300bps or high 200 bps, the current valuations are outlandish. It is high school sophomore math. Pretty simple and straight forward in its implications.
Renting is the best way to stack sats. It has lots of tradeoffs but from a purely economic perspective there is no second best. Ownership of anything is a costly endeavor.
I think owning some land outside of town and living on it is a great way to stack sats. I'm going feral and don't mind living in the woods, foraging and homesteading ect. for my food. An insulated shed can be a comfortable place to live, saving a bunch of fiat that can be converted to sats
It was the same calculation then as now. Everyone told me I was crazy to buy. The value of a house in gold (or BTC) stays about the same - even since 100 years ago. The problem for a young person is that interest on a 30 yr mortgage makes the proposition very expensive. You need a) a large initial equity to reduce size of mortgage and/or b) a shorter term mortgage (e.g. 15 years - higher payments). In my case, I lived in the unheated attic of my parents garage. (They begged me to take a basement room, but I was determined to sleep in my underwear in sub-zero weather like those Australian Aborigines and college students in that study cited in Scientific Americ - it worked! The key is NO wind chill.) I paid a very small rent and saved up a 25% down payment. I considered it essential to provide a home for a marriage. In addition, I made a strict budget, and paid it off in 15 years. (Note, there are additional steps I didn't take, like making payments twice a month to reduce total interest.)
I’ve been told “don’t buy, so much cheaper to rent” because they look at today’s mortgage rates, not ones from 10+ years ago 😂
One of my sister's rents. She pays twice as much as I do for a smaller house. Sad.
Mine has tripled (quadrupled if my neighbor actually gets what they’re asking for their place) in the 20 years I’ve had the place. The equity I had 10 years ago is the only reason I was able to have my income cut in half so I could get out of banking before I killed myself.
I find myself prepping a mid twit response like Home value increase - (txn costs of getting in and out of property) - (opportunity costs of down payment) - (illiquidity premium) - (bank interest) - (property taxes) likely negative expected value in a majority of random walks. Then the giga brain says - own the roof over your head. That is all.
I think there is a lot of wisdom in renting versus owning your home but it depends on so many factors especially location. I think it's also important to make the distinction between owning a home and owning land. Land I think as a hard asset, is important to invest in for many people. Especially in rural areas, to be self-sovereign is a big deal and trumps renting every time in my eyes
In Austin, Texas, it seems much cheaper to rent. There are houses for rent for 2000-3000/month that cost 600000. The interest at 6% on a 500,000 mortgage is 30,000/ year which is as much as the rent. the property tax is then another 6000-10000. My strategy is: --Save 100,000 downpayment in Bitcoin in 2024 --by 2025 House prices will be correcting to mean --2 Bitcoin stash may possibly pay for the house if I'm lucky.
Pay attention from where the fiat money starts and where it ends It doesnt matter if housing sp500 nasdaq private debt etc since the money that permeates all of this is centralized in the root They still have the power to change all of the housing market by a click of a button no matter if millions or billions of houses
If your house is a higher price then it's inflated money supply and the city or town you live in doesn't have a money printer so you will be taxed accordingly. That being said, I have a house in a small city and my taxes are high but it's less expensive than what my son pays in rent. So there is that, too.
Modern thinking in a nutshell. And it dosen't just apply to architecture. https://video.nostr.build/c5544437c5c54a8ccfa3413709ac1c3be67e3c7f09d7af36b3bfc814f77c7d14.mp4#m=video%2Fmp4&dim=320x568&blurhash=%5D%23J8IfRkbJxut7%7EqRkt7t7t7%25goJoej%5Dayxuj%5BRjWCWBj%5DofRjWBWBoKofayWBayaxofofWBaza%23j%5BofaxfQj%5Bayayayay&x=c5544437c5c54a8ccfa3413709ac1c3be67e3c7f09d7af36b3bfc814f77c7d14
this makes so much sense
It's enlightening that you can replace architecture with almost any word to describe an aspect of society and it still makes sense. #bitcoin at least has a long time frame..... 😁
Bitcoin > SPX
We bought our house cash 13 years ago, and today it's up 4x. Had we known about and thrown it all into bitcoin, and just rented, we'd be in great shape. Another thing we can currently do, that i haven't convinced the wife on yet is to pull an equity line and use it to buy bitcoin. She isn't sold on that yet though 🤣.
Buying in cash is integrity. I'd do this if I could, financial disadvantages notwithstanding. Mortgages at low rates are an artificial construct backed by the fed designed to place property ownership in the hands of the banks.
Wealth in real estate can so easily pivot from skin in the fiat game to having one’s neck on the line. I hope humanity achieves escape velocity from this.
Yust a couple years back I was thinking i could make some $$$$ with BTC and buy a Flat/House (with mortgagee), even if the prices are super high, "because it give's cashflow and they'll go up forever" Over time that changed from "Yes of course I'll buy a house/flat" to "Why would I buy realestate (or anything else as investment) instead of Bitcoin if the later will suck out the monetary premium of the former and everything else?!!! It'll go up forever Laura!" I understand if you can buy a house/Flat with a loan so that you pay less monthly for your mortgage then rent would be, then it might make sense in some situations, but you'll probably own less Sats then otherwise
I think so. That's why I'm thinking in buying indidual stocks, but the problem is the same: you don't own stocks, stocks are owned by trusted third parties. Then I remember that's why one should also have hard money.
Ni con Fiat ni con dólares 💲ni con Títulos de propiedad de bienes raíces 🏘️ ni con acciones de S&P puedes exiliarte en algún país que pueda ser amigable con Bitcoin, sin pasar antes por la Casilla del Gobierno, Y por otro lado Bitcoin desde 2012 cada 4 años establece pisos al Precio haciendo que tu riqueza aparcada cada 4 años tenga un precio de estabilidad 2012: 4 2016: 400$ 2020: 4.000$ 2024: 40.000$ https://image.nostr.build/c8b1953596f81d6e8c5e9fe44a60e4b843696ac4648bb1d655dc7348e0ea9627.jpg#m=image%2Fjpeg&dim=1076x1839&blurhash=%5D13uyMz%3DS%7EDO%5E*%3Fb%24jxZr%3BsRU%7B.8%5Ei%3FaIA%3D%7C%25gQ-ROnN%7Eq%23SI.n4%3FHyDQ%2Ctks9xasl%25fxFozIVv%23t%2BQ-XSn%2Cx%40t5R%2BtR%252&x=387777ff1972ae12de11385ba2e19232bff42682c3045a5febf76cd84ef20244
Central European Metropolitan properties bought in early 2000 were a decent investment. Especially at 0.5% fixed mortgages. Now it's very risky due to changing working patterns but mainly due to inflated money supply.
London, Prague, Barcelona, Paris, Budapest, Bucharest just to mention a few. Brick and mortar with tall ceilings built early 1900 and true properties.
IMO owning your house isn't about its value or investment, its about security. Especially true if you can own it outright or have a plan to do so in the short term. Securities are held by DTC, renters can be rugged anytime, but if you own the house and custody the deed... well that's about as secure as you can get. Hold your keys, hold your deed.
I like the idea of owning land, not a fiat house. I would prefer someplace that does not have any building codes or where I could hide a small house. Perhaps investing the energy into a house that could last a very long time and provide some heating and cooling like an earthship. I want to invest my energy building soil and growing healthy food. Doing some permaculture to make this land paradise for generations. I would rather have a little bitcoin and this property than a bunch of bitcoin. Both approaches seem good though, us permies will sell quality food for bitcoin. I may have to abandon if things get bad, but I keep my knowledge. If you are worried about needing to flee a government then focus on bitcoin and mobile infrastructure. I would still want land if took the second approach.
