Oddbean

The status quo doesnt go under from NGU. To the contrary, it just means more fiat was made and Bitcoin value is playing catchup to that until adoption hits an inflection point. Working wherever pays the most in fiat terms to buy more Bitcoin is really the same as saying nobody should work low paying jobs of any form and open source should go away. We would not have nostr or bitcoin under that model and as you point out why do it if it doesnt pay as much as fiat.

I disagree. Bitcoin’s number (i.e. purchasing power) going up has nothing to do with fiat. Fiat is a useful measure for how much bitcoin’s number goes up because the world operates with fiat rails for medium of exchange and unit of account. However, as bitcoin’s number goes up, there will be pressure on both of those functions of money technologies based on government decree. Society eventually stops working for worthless fiat … there are a number of examples of this throughout history (Roman Empire, confederacy, Weimar, etc.) and when the population stops accepting and participating in a currency … that’s very bad for the governing body. But with bitcoin, not only is fiat debasement bad for the incumbent governing body…there is an available alternative to the incumbent governing body. They will be replaced — not by voting - but by pure market forces. In the end, NGU is all that matters. I love the medium of exchange L2 techs and the companies striving for bitcoin unit of account…those will come with time. But everything else falls into line once bitcoin continues its role as the best monetary technology (conveyer of value over space & time) that humanity has ever had access to. Freedom is achieved via NGU.

You said a lot of things that are contradictory. Why would society stop working for worthless fiat? What causes them to recognize that it is worthless? When that happens, and Bitcoin is not measured in fiat, then what is the NGU that it is measured by? Governments will still create demands for payment in their sovereign currency, not Bitcoin. Until that issues is resolved the status quo does not go under.

(1) why did the Roman legions stop working for Rome? Read about the history of other financial collapses. (2) bitcoin NGU is measured by its purchasing power independent of fiat currencies. If the dollar became 100% backed by bitcoin and so it’s NGU, too it wouldn’t matter to Bitcoin’s success…Bitcoin’s NGU still is important. (3) you can’t make credit available under a bitcoin standard. Individuals would take out loans based on 5+ year treasuries and buy bitcoin. The system implodes on itself pretty quickly.

You didn't answer any of my questions and instead proposed contradictory ones in response. 1) Military might that is grown through resource acquisition will inevitably lead to lack of sufficient resources within the domain to sustain that growth. That's also true of species in general without a military driving it's growth. 2) Bitcoin NGU is directly related to fiat currency valuation. Purchasing power grows in fiat terms. On a Bitcoin standard, its NGD. As long as we have NGU we won't be on a Bitcoin standard. 3) You can make credit available under a Bitcoin standard. Your example is credit available under a fiat standard where people can speculatively attack the dollar via loans, and which is happening today.

(1) if the military might is being fed bugs and paid fiat that doesn’t cover basic necessities (food, shelter, energy) because they are too expensive then they aren’t going to be motivated to do anything of quality. That obviously extends to every single walk of life. Read Atlas Shrugged (or at least The Mandible) for a good narrative around how this happens in a modern society. (2) fiat currently is the rails for global medium of exchange and unit of account, yes. But bitcoin NGU does not need to be measured by fiat to have NGU. If someone was willing to part with 2 pizzas in exchange for 10,000 bitcoin in 2010 and now 10,000 bitcoin will buy a Caribbean Island citadel then NGU without fiat serving as a medium of exchange. NGU means purchasing power in terms of real goods and services. Fiat has been a useful technology to make that transaction quickly. (3) Even a 10% 5-year treasury rate against bitcoin’s annual appreciation (50+%) over a 4-year cycle would get blown up by the arbitrage trade. Yes, credit exists on a bitcoin standard but the expected yield is more in line with the appreciation of the asset…we’re nowhere near that in the current fiat world. (Aside: that’s the Michael Saylor trade…if everyone did it, it would blow up modern credit markets.)