Oddbean

Well he is one of the most influential people in the world. He said civil war is *inevitable*. In other words, a certainty. Therefore people will truly believe they are about to be in a civil war. If people think they are about to be in a civil war, then they will begin preparing for that possibility. This includes being suspicious about the other faction and being ready to be violent as a defense mechanism. If both sides of said civil war hold this view, then it increases the chances of violence occuring. Hence, my point that his words are arguably inciting violence. Do I have any idea how hard it is to pull of a civil war? I saw them pull of J6, BLM riots and even the Iraq War, among others. So no, historically speaking, I do not think it is that hard for them to pull it off. Personally, I don't think a violent revolution is going to free us. But we can agree to disagree on that. 🤝

thank you for the measured and civil reply 🤝🏻 i'm preparing for civil war because of blm, redneck revolt, and polarization due to demographic shifts. you make three leaps of this will cause this will cause this. I disagree with you on that. There is no anthropological / sociological evidence that indicates the ideas of a single intelligent / well known individual incite war. AFAICT this claim (which smacks much of hate speech paranoia) was pulled out of someone's ass, i.e. my opinion vs yours. i stand ready to be corrected with good evidence. Jan 6 is not a good example, it is a long discussion which should be its own thread. i strongly reccomend everyone prepare for at least a failed state if not civil war / insurgency in the next 20 years. build strong local relationships, learn to keep your mouth shut, become comfortable with disobeying laws. wait.....these are things we all are doing already out of necessity. see what I mean? through the lens of history, it is nearly a certainty that this terrible event will happen in my lifetime. Some of the greatest minds of our time agree on this. Even if there is only a 15% chance, I want my family friends and self to be prepared. We are Americans. This is what we do.