Oddbean new post about login | logout Polymarket right now. #election https://m.primal.net/Lswt.png https://polymarket.com/elections
How accurate are these though for final results? Not sure how polymarket works
Still a 50/50 shot. It’s like flipping a coin. If you flip it a 100x Trump wins 60, but it’s getting flipped once. Don’t make decisions based on these.
It’s a prediction market. People “bet” on the outcome by buying what they think will happen, maybe selling when they think it’s priced too high, maybe buying more of it’s priced too low. The final result will be either $1.00 on Trump or $1.00 on Kamala. So right now the market thinks there’s a ~59% chance of Trump winning. It’s a useful indicator because a large volume of people are putting their money where their mouth is, but ultimately just one datapoint among many.
