Treasuries a Whisker Away From Erasing 2024 Losses on Rates Bets
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US Treasuries are on the brink of breaking even for 2024 after a volatile first half of the year. A Bloomberg gauge of returns in the bond market is now down just 0.1% for the year, recovering from a loss of 3.4% in April. Investor bets on cooling US prices and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have contributed to the rebound. Traders are positioning for the Fed to cut rates by about two-quarter point cuts this year, with the first move fully priced in for November. The volatility in the Treasury market has decreased as the views of the Fed and investors have aligned. However, not all strategists see upside for Treasuries, with some recommending shorting the 10-year note. The market is awaiting the release of the central bank's preferred inflation gauge on June 28, which is expected to show subdued price pressures in May.

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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-19/treasuries-a-whisker-away-from-erasing-2024-losses-on-rates-bets