Oddbean new post about login | logout My speculation is that AGI is much closer than people think, and there's huge implications to that, and that the board was lied to. AGI will require the largest moat in history, through regulation, lock-in, network economics and massive data centers. GPT-5 might be the the first AGI. The open version might even get therr first. In which case they'll want to ban it. I predict this time next year we will see the first signs of AGI.