The '22 'red wave' was such a perfect example of pundit groupthink. Party in power lost big in midterms that didn't follow a coup attempt and a packed Court stripping away long-held rights, so it'll happen this time. 

I looked at the Cong generic ballot and predicted a Dem hold or red trickle all year. Dems led for much of the year and when they trailed, it was always by a coupla points. You didn't need a crystal ball. Just needed to ditch the conventional wisdom and use your eyes. 

#media

https://files.mastodon.social/media_attachments/files/111/189/216/834/440/250/original/55507571d48d33b8.png 

 This graph is from a Dan Balz column earlier this week. 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/10/04/mccarthy-speaker-ouster-analysis/ 

 @129bca96 it’s my short answer to all the absurd polls I see lately: “Red Wave”! (A lot of it was done with bad polling)