Oddbean new post about login | logout This article from the Council of Foreign Relation's timeline of the great financial crisis including the buil-up to it, provided an overview that helped me to come to these preliminary conclusions on what was going on in 1991-1992. Coincidentially the CFR has by severak experts on geopolitics been referred to as an organisation that influenced the neocons' policies. https://www.cfr.org/timeline/us-financial-crisis
The so-called "Chinese miracle" startet in 1992 and led to an average growth of GDP at 10 percent for 30 years. The growth is in particular built on cheap credit, from foreign investors and state controlled banks. This transcript from president Bush's unofficial visit with chairman Deng in 1989 illustrates what was brewing: A Sino-US relationship based on "mutual trust" and mutual scepticism to Soviet Union. Deng specificallt pointed his finger towards Japan and tzarist Russis/Soviet Union as "the two countries [that] had done the greatest damage to China". Bush played along and said: "So the China-U.S. relationship must stand on its own feet. After that we can talk about the broad challenges that face all of us because of changes in the Soviet Union, the unification of the European common market in 1992, and the Third World debt. We can discuss these problems. But I was anxious to come as President to make the relationship stronger and better. I can guarantee that in my Administration our bilateral relationship will be stronger and better." It's interesting to note that finance, currencies or the dollar aren't mentioned at all, although it's every reason to assume that this was a major underlying issue. https://digitalarchive.wilsoncenter.org/document/memorandum-conversation-president-bushs-meeting-chairman-deng-xiaoping-peoples-republic
The meeting between Bush and Deng took place on 26 February 1989. Shortly after the Chinese government established the Stock Exchange Executive Council (SEEC) in March 1989 to create a nationwide treasury bond trading system. Goldman Sachs writes in an article published on its website: "On December 19, 1990, the Shanghai Stock Exchange reopened, the same year as the development of the financial hub of East Shanghai (Pudong) started. The Shanghai Stock Exchange restarted operations in the former Pujiang Hotel on the city’s waterfront and had computer terminals linked to other trading counters in the city and in cities around China. On July 15, 1991, the Exchange launched its first stock index." These facts demonstrate the speed of the developments in US policymaking towards the end of the Soviet era. They clearly show us that China would be the preferred party. The former communist regime in the east was to be the US government's new best buddy, while Russia was shoved out in the cold, economically and politically. https://www.goldmansachs.com/our-firm/history/moments/1990-shanghai-stock-exchange-reopens.html