Oddbean new post about login | logout Back during the subprime mortgage housing bubble, house prices increased at a much more rapid pace than money supply. But in this more recent pandemic-liquidity house price surge, it has come with a lot of money supply growth. That's part of the reason I'm not too bearish on house prices in nominal terms. I think a lot of those prices are going to grind kind of sideways for a while as other things run hot. https://m.primal.net/JjOo.png
I hope you're wrong. #Bitcoin can't start soon enough to suck the monetary premium out of real estate. Housing should not be a luxury ✌️
Bitcoin has to go up an order of magnitude in scale before it can start noticeably affecting the monetary premium of houses and stocks.
I would really like to learn why this is the case, can you elaborate more? How will bitcoin eating monetary premium of other assets manifest, or to say another way, what signal is there to look for to be able to know and measure that occurring?
How is CRE doing?
Depends on what segment. Office buildings are terrible due to low occupancy from remote work. That market is right-sizing itself. Money supply growth doesn't matter much if a property literally becomes useless.
the green agenda will have an important impact on CRE.
how so?
PEB score (isolation, energy efficiency etcof a building) will determine tax rate , rent tax adjustment rate and property tax
True investment real estate is a good investment with a fiat world. You use the melting cash to your advantage. (does not usually apply to your own home)
Take a look to my article about real estate on Florida: https://medium.com/@adalegend/florida-real-estate-is-not-crashing-33a597009659 Send me a DM if you have no Medium Subscription.
Canada has the lowest mortgage originations on record in 2024. Prices in many areas have already started correcting. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q-ryOwyGmbY
Reventure has some good insights in thr US markets. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wa5r73qp_-U
Housing inventories are rising however with few ways to finance them affordably-not a good time to be in building/real estate industry. even if land owners can perhaps expectsideways action generally it's net bad news.
New housing supply is staying empty at a pace not seen since the global financial crisis. https://m.primal.net/JjVm.jpg
I wonder how the distribution of M2 among households looks now vs then.
Esta analise da @LynAlden é muito interessante: nostr:note1urarp0qee2k97e2saz20r9wrprnagqcgujwwyd4e4klyhqklg4vsts72jf Fiz sobre Portugal, após 2022, houve um descolamento, talvez não seja nada. 🤔 https://m.primal.net/JkIQ.png
