Take a 10-year investment of $150M.
If you put on the S&P, you get 325M after 10 years with "no risk".
If you put on Bitcoin, you get 1B back with wide swings.
But in both, you do nothing.
OR give it to a start up that can lose everything and return ZERO back.
Question: How much should you expect the startup to return to you to be worth that type of risk?
$10B?
That's 10B just for your share of the company.
If you take a 25% share, the company should get be worth $40B.
How much profit does the company have to have to be worth $40B?
For comparison, Snap is worth $25B with 5B in advertising revenue from 350m users.
If you don't like ads, $5B in subscription revenue requires $1/mo for 350m PAID users.
Can this company get 350m PAID users?
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Its an ICO-NFT mother 💩hole
To get 5B in revenue from a 5% fee on every NFT sale, they need 100B of NFT sales.
TicketMaster, the monopoly of usable NFTs, sells $16B worth of NFTs every year.
To return this investment, they need to become 6x what TicketMaster is.
I think you underestimate the $0 cost pump and dump a16z playbook.
They’ve scammed retail so hard, we just take it for granted how good they are at dumping unregistered securities on the plebs.
Not only is it ~~$0 cost to pre-mine, a16z also figured out there is no need to go public, or become acquired by a bigger PE/VC outfit. They can dump whenever they feel like on the 💩coin bros.
Now they have a platform that is owned by them. Shitcoin B will replace shitcoin A biweekly.
That's my point :)
The only way to make this investment back is to dump on retail.
I wanted to have a look at farcaster the other day and got an app for it. Turns out you have to pay to just pass Go. So deleted the app.
What is the bluesky business model? 🤔
There must be plans to dump a shitcoin on retail
You shouldn't expect a 150 mio investment in a startup to 8X in 10 years. At this kind of stage (C round), those returns don't exist anymore I think. The risk of it going to zero is also not that high.
In the Farcaster case, it's probably shitcoinery where crypto VCs give 150 M and get tokens. The money probably won't even be spent.
Makes sense. So, less risk but smaller returns. Maybe 4x in 10 years? If it is much lower, it won't make much sense.
Farcaster is trash. There is no software to download, you need email address verification and have to pay. Yay, so decentralized.
Imho, only a VERY STUPID person would just invest in Bitcoin.
You should also invest in S&P, via Vanguard cuz they usually have the lowest fees!
They received a $1 billion valuation, so they’re giving up only 15% of the company in equity. The growth required to make this investment back is astonishing. That said, when you have the chance and the market is hot, take the money.
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