美国经济会衰退吗？领先经济指数的最大回撤目前为-11.8%，与1990年、2001年和2020年的经济衰退一致，但远低于全球金融危机的回撤，也远低于经常听到的90年代中期的“软着陆”。Max drawdown for Leading Economic Index now at -11.8%, which is inline with 1990, 2001 and 2020 recessions, but nowhere near GFC drawdown. Also well below any "soft landings" of which I hear the mid 90's referenced quite a bit. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F_bIBF3a0AAa__I.jpg