Oddbean new post about login | logout 20yo brooklynites cannot ever win a ground war against an enemy motivated by avenging their families being slaughtered in the most cowardly way of dropping bombs on their heads, or their land being stolen...
Israel is currently controlling ~10% of Lebanon excluding Golan Heights.
Doubt it. And even if, it's not going to last. Their only lifeline is gringo boots, the children who want to go to college but were not born with a silver spoon in their mouth, to come and die for them... That's why Israelis have been trying so hard to goad Iran into war.
No matter who wins the election next week Israel will continue to receive effectively infinite financial support, munitions and military intel from the USA. It's unlikely they will need US troop support but if genuinely threatened I have no reason to believe they wouldn't get that too.
There's only so far money can take you. US recruitment numbers are low and the empire is being challenged on many fronts...plus the hate against Israel is going to the moon.
Support is definitely down, but even on the Gaza conflict where Israel has been generally accepted to have met the criteria for a genocide only 31% of Americans say they've gone too far as of Oct 1. Importantly US political leadership is steadfast in their commitment to Israel. https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/10/01/slight-uptick-in-americans-wanting-u-s-to-help-diplomatically-resolve-israel-hamas-war/
I am not saying Israel will be wiped out, but it's loosing right now. Security for Israeli citizens will continue to deteriorate.
We'll see.