Oddbean new post about login | logout I think the breaking point has been reached. The Russians need to push in such a way where Ukie troops just give up in droves or there's a flat out mutiny. Maybe winter will have that effect. It's beyond insanity, it's just repulsive.
Russians added an additional 350,000 volunteers to their armed forces this year. I don't know what the net gain is, since I don't know how many contracts expired over that period of time, but if that many additional soldiers are diverted to Ukraine, they can basically push wherever they want, combined with their massive upswing in materiel production over last year.