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 1) What’s your evidence for believing that they will do it to bitcoin first?

2) why does it matter? If they can do that to either coin, they eventually will. 
 price point incentivizes regulatory capture.

only a coin that can be used *without announcing it's use* stands a chance against state attacks. 
 In order for monero to be useful, its use needs to be “announced” so your position doesn’t make sense. 
 There are orders of magnitude of difference between
1. knowing your peer accepts a thing and using it privately

and

2. recording the tx on a transparent ledger anyone with an internet connection can see

All central points (gift card providers, CEXs etc) have the same weakness, whether BTC or XMR, and are susceptible to pressure

Privacy is the only thing that makes direct p2p censorship resistant. 
 You’re not addressing any of my points or questions. This dialogue is going nowhere. Have a good day.