Oddbean

Jensen, Jerome, & Jobs Spark Surge In Stocks, Gold, & Crypto This Week Jensen, Jerome, & Jobs Spark Surge In Stocks, Gold, & Crypto This Week An event-full week (US CPI, US PPI, Presidential debate, ECB rate decision, and WSJ Fed whispers) left stocks, bonds, gold, crypto, and crude all higher in price, while the dollar was clubbed like a baby seal. Soft survey data continues to rebound higher (full of hope) while hard data - most notably labor market-related - has been significantly lagging expectations... https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm2027_0.jpg?itok=pzmKhCdY Source: Bloomberg ...which, along with comments from The Wall Street Journal's Fed-Whisperer on discussions about a 50bps cut next week, sent rate-cut expectations higher on the week (despite plenty of chop around the hotter-than-expected core CPI print)... https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfmA7B6.jpg?itok=15x52lo6 Source: Bloomberg ...and shifted the market's expectations for a 50bps cut next week above 50%... https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm3CA3_0.jpg?itok=TwShU-7b Source: Bloomberg Treasury yields were all lower on the week, led by the short-end... https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm60E6.jpg?itok=bEvnfo_Z Source: Bloomberg ...but despite bonds being bid, US stocks snapped aggressively higher midweek (after NVDA CEO Jensen Huang said "demand was incredible" and the algos went wild) and extended that sudden squeeze into Friday (with Small Caps and Nasdaq leading). Nasdaq was up just under 6% this week - its best week since the Powell Pivot at the start of Nov 2023... https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2024-09-13_12-36-01.jpg?itok=c2ewax9I Small Caps soared 2.5% today... https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2024-09-13_12-57-24.jpg?itok=57S1_XwJ ...as "Most Shorted" stocks soared all week... https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm493.jpg?itok=e8sMSzU_ Source: Bloomberg ...and Mag7 stocks were up 5 days in a row (soaring to their best week since March 2023)... https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm5451.jpg?itok=AD9c-Pyd Source: Bloomberg This week was not just AI stocks but the second-derivatives trades (like powering AI). Goldman's Power-Up-America basket soared to its best week in the last two years... https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm8D66.jpg?itok=xIeVxldq Source: Bloomberg Stocks notably decoupled from bonds this week... https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm6A6F.jpg?itok=1rb84BEd Source: Bloomberg ...as the Treasury curve (2s10s) steepened back into dis-inversion and its steepest since June 2022... https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm6DCE.jpg?itok=7ax4ltOv Source: Bloomberg The dollar was slammed lower after the WSJ comments yesterday (its sixth down week in the last seven weeks), but remains in a relatively narrow band for the last four weeks... https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfmD7B7_1.jpg?itok=nLEoz6a- Source: Bloomberg The dollar's weakness helped lift gold, which surged to a new record high with its best week in five months... https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm2518_1.jpg?itok=dA_7bTCk Source: Bloomberg Oil prices ended the week higher (despite today's pullback) but WTI remains below $70... https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm7A85_0.jpg?itok=x5aSqc32 Source: Bloomberg Which, along with the broad commodity space, is the only aspect of the markets that comes close to pricing in the 230bps of cuts priced into FF futures (a hard landing!!!)... https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm8B7A.jpg?itok=buvDsTp9 Source: Bloomberg Finally, bitcoin surged to its best week in two months, testing back up to $60,000 today... https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfm1281.jpg?itok=F8MKxKcr Source: Bloomberg ...as perhaps the lagged impact of the surge in global liquidity (money supply) is about to send it to the moon... https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/bfmA79D.jpg?itok=HlW9TlZ4 Source: Bloomberg Gold and stocks are already there... and don't forget - after Nasdaq's best week since the Powell Pivot, we are entering the market's worst two-week period of the year... https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/image%20%2858%29_2.png?itok=_PaLTJ2y Will Powell let the market down? https://cms.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden Fri, 09/13/2024 - 16:00 https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/jensen-jerome-jobs-spark-surge-stocks-gold-crypto-week