Oddbean new post about login | logout We are on the brink of more war escalation in the middle east. Yet the price of oil is pretty average. Why? 1. More oil is produced outside of the Middle East now, so the Middle East doesn't affect the price as much 2. The war will be nuclear and kill so many people that the demand for oil is going to plummet 3. Oil is actualy expensive now. We are just used to it because of constant market disruptions: COVID, Russia-v-Ukraine, etc. 4. People don't use oil as much anymore. We have moved on to wind and solar and batteries. 5. Some other better theory (please state it)
The US is already a net exporter of crude oil. Also, as a side note, the lowest price of February 2022 (Russian invasion in Ukraine) was 86.55. Ukraine f***ed their refineries which, I believe, lowers the price for crude (because they don't have the capacity to refine, they sell more crude than usual) and should raise the price for refined products, although mostly for their internal market (army included, with a bigger and bigger demand). PS: You made my day with your second point!
international energy body ( don't remember the name ) recently predicted record oil surplus by 2030 because everyone is going Electric yet production is still going up ...
there will be no nuclear war but there may be a draft ...
Given the shitty state of things, perhaps enough people just don't give a fuck about what happens. The thinking could be: Why freak out about another punch to the gut, after being hit so many times?
