Oddbean

Black Swans are the obvious issue most don’t see because the average person just plays along with irrational explanations. There are a small, but quite a few, that see Black Swans because they think logically, rationally prepare, and *can* wait long enough in a position. They can wait for the adverse event to unfold. Most can’t. It’s not that Black Swans are unseen or unknown. It’s that *most* choose to ignore the obvious signs. Typically, because it means not taking the easy route, or making a big change to one’s lifestyle. So, only a few are willing to do this and are rewarded handsomely for doing so. Ex: in 2008 it was *very* clear that Central Banks were becoming absurdly large hedge funds that had lost control, with no bigger fish to come in and backstop them. However, it was not until a decade later that they finally began failing. 2018 - 2022. It is very clear that US College Education is and has been an enormous bubble. Subsidized by govt grants and funding, & supported by issuing enormous bond amounts to overbuild. They can’t pay the interest expense so they raise tuition every year and use that raise to pay bondholder interest expense. The definition of ponzi. This Black Swan has failed to happen… yet. But is very, clear, obvious and open.