Oddbean new post about | logout
 I heard this same thing during multiple of the last forks as well. There is no great cost to waiting around for confirmations. It’s not so simple, people will react and Blackrock doesn’t control mining. But main thought they controlled it too, didn’t turn out so well.

Nothing is as simple as it seems. The community, the market, mining, incentives, and the people involved are all very complex and have tons of different things in play. Because of that, the scheduling point is insanely powerful and won’t be easily overcome by a naive short term status of “there’s more mining power on ____.” IMO 
 If only a minority of the miners follow the old chain, the risk of 51% attack becomes real moreover the hashing power could move from one to another, destabilizing the block time in a very relevant way. I think that this has in fact happened to the Bitcoin forks that lost the majority of the market value.