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Mike Dilger | 10 months ago (raw) | export | reply | flag +4 
 One way to predict the future is to look at people with a lot of money on the line. The cost of war insurance for ships transitting the Red Sea is currently about 0.5%, but has recently doubled.  I'd say the risk of imminent war (during a ship transit time) is still, on an absolute basis, quite low.  https://www.lloydslist.com/LL1147660/Red-Sea-war-risk-rates-still-rising-after-doubling-in-past-week
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Mike Dilger | 10 months ago (raw) | root | parent | reply | flag 
 BTW that is not the odds of an imminent war. That is the odds that an imminent war would totally destroy some randomly selected ship, plus a bit for profit.
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Mike Dilger | 10 months ago (raw) | root | parent | reply | flag 
 For comparison, Black Sea rates are around 2.75%, and there is an active war happening over there.
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jeannie | 10 months ago (raw) | root | parent | reply | flag 
 Man, everything you say is so damn clever and logic!!
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Leopold Bloom | 10 months ago (raw) | root | parent | reply | flag 
 https://www.arabnews.com/node/2421851/amp

They’re also only targeting ships to Isreal in an attempt to force Isreal into a ceasefire in Gaza. So as long as the ‘West’ does not attempt to defend Israeli ships and truely escalate the situation, the risk of imminent war is low I agree.