Oddbean

There's about 1.2 million active duty and another roughly 800k reserve and guard members. There's over 17 million veterans, plus tens of millions of patriotic citizens. They own about 20X more guns than the military. But... There's about 12 million military age illegal immigrants who could be conscripted in exchange for citizenship. There's millions of left leaning citizens who could be drafted in a civil war. There's NATO and the UN who would also be brought in on the side of the leftists/globalists if there was an American civil war.

The left-leaning barely matter, firing a few rounds in their direction could scatter a platoon of them. Maybe 50 of them to 1 vet when considering their threat level. The illegals are a major concern, but that can go both ways. The majority of them have a world view that is at least partly opposed to the authoritarian left on principle. And ultimately, I'd prefer an illegal who holds core American values and will fight for them over a current citizen who hates freedom and wants welfare to bleed me out. Tricky to handle regardless. Most NATO countries have their own populace problems. I strongly suspect that if America enters revolt, it would trigger others. That would handicap their ability to assist US Gov. Nothing about it would be easy, but the authoritarians don't have the edge they think they do. IF we are actually willing to fight. Most of us are too peaceful. Fauci testified recently that he has received 2 credible death threats. Only 2. Anyone opposed to the left who caused merely emotional harm to less than 10% as many people as Fauci got killed would have received more than that.

I'm confident that freedom will win but it's a conflict that could last years. Veterans of Iraq and Afghanistan have unique counterinsurgency experience which means we can lead in waging a protracted insurgency against the US military, and most of us are still young enough to fight.

After learning recently about the 77th infantry, I'm certain of that. I do wonder what role bitcoin and the breakdown of USD will end up playing. Our inability to print is a downside in war, but the inflation might make merchants unwilling to accept USD but very willing to accept bitcoin. Could we end up buying their troops / equipment out from under them? Too bad we'll have to live through it; those who get to study it after the fact are going to have a field day.