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 They also need to reach an audience. How likely is it that a content creator with a niche interest will find m/any people on nostr? And how many people out of those will click on their patreon/paid subscription/buy me a coffee thing link? It's partly a numbers game.

(I'm using 'content creator' here but I think this has become a genre to itself, I'm still using it in the more old fashioned sense lol. There are definitely people online doing very worthwhile projects and not solely / cynically harvesting clicks and ad revenue). 
 >  It's partly a numbers game.
Totally

I think that's a great example as you have described your position before. On "content creators" there is no place here for those creators, but I also don't think there will be in the same ways. I think it will be much more difficult to run a business "creating content" like we currently see on youtube. Constantly wrenching on the algorithms for maximum attention.  
 I think the better, more thoughtful 'content creators' have a more dedicated and loyal following willing to support them. But they also rely partly on discovery and playing the silly games of eg YouTube's visibility to grow that, especially in the emerging / establishing any significant following, stage. And obviously this is tied in with building reputations and networks... appearing in journals, at talks or whatever. Where twitter is still probably their best option. 
 the money on youtube and other social media for "creators" is purely about milking the advertising

pretty sure that many nostr users have ad blockers and ublock and all this other stuff

i think if stuff like wavelake was better capitalised and scaled up to do video as well perhaps there could be premium subscriptions... i pay $10/month for youtube, if i could get 10% of the content i get from that on a nostr based site i'd switch 
 I think there is also a perhaps small and possibly growing attitude of 'never twitter' or 'never youtube' etc aspect also which might come into play as a factor for people needing to crosspost on multiple platforms to reach the exodus-ers, maybe.