JPMorgan boosts US recession chance to 35% by end of 2024
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JPMorgan Chase & Co now sees a 35% chance of a US recession by the end of 2024, up from 25% last month. The bank cites weakening labor demand and signs of labor shedding as reasons for the increased risk. However, JPMorgan economists still believe there is a 45% chance of a recession by the second half of 2025. The bank also predicts a 30% chance of the Federal Reserve and other central banks keeping interest rates high, down from a previous 50% assessment. JPMorgan expects the Fed to cut rates by half a percentage point in September and November. Goldman Sachs also recently increased its probability of a recession in the next year to 25%. If a recession were to occur, JPMorgan economists believe central banks would respond with immediate easing measures.
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