Oddbean

Let's just stop with this weird narrative. Bitcoin is crypto. Satoshi called Bitcoin crypto. Satoshi even enjoyed other cryptos - he created Namecoin after all. He obviously didn't think Bitcoin would be the only one. "But because Bitcoin is the first successful digital money, any crypto trying to be money, irrespective of its characteristics, cannot compete with Bitcoin’s established network effects" 👇 https://image.nostr.build/b0de23c2b2c90be5f1881fb3ce66b632a2e63bd8bea573fc47c41f5621f9e719.jpg https://image.nostr.build/63d19d93428e129c3f8bfabd474eadfd5bc6267d24a1b42d305fc7e157132fd8.png https://image.nostr.build/f973abe946a22c94b9f81ed807ba19a14c25b80dd56591f50dd0ee581bd9c965.jpg

I don’t see a crypto challenging Bitcoin in the first chart. Even all of them put together look to be in the minority and declining. With its transparent public ledger, Bitcoin is the antithesis of privacy, and can’t even try and compete with opaque systems such as Monero and the fiat system. So Bitcoin being the most accepted currency on the ‘darknet’ is surprising: even where secrecy is most prized, Bitcoin is still leading. If anything, that seems to demonstrate Bitcoin’s supremacy. Can you point me at any resources on Monero? Genuinely interested to find out more, particularly its levels of use and decentralisation.

The long term general trend on the first chart is Bitcoin losing dominance over time with the cryptocurrency market overall. Second one shows it being displaced on specific markets like the darknet (Bitcoins first use case and the only place your can transact without permission). Wouldn't be surprised if Monero has surpassed Bitcoin in the present since that is from 2021. Most DNMs have included Monero and a few of the largest markets have gone exclusively Monero since then. Besides the darknet, here are a few recent metrics on Monero adoption and decentralization. Nodes count and distribution are in the same ballpark as Bitcoin. Mining can be argued to be more decentralized since nearly everyone has access to a general purpose computer. It doesn't require a specialized equipment: https://monero.fail/map note1japrdgyh9hkkqd922ahhq0n0jwv034vtj57xtuv5wn2e0gq2u92qeqhqa0

Another metric where Bitcoin is obviously losing adoption (and didn't have to) to stablecoins outside of western countries. Despite being (mostly) permissioned systems, stablecoins are still very useful and popular in Asia, Africa, and South America (majority of the world). Why is Bitcoin losing in all these different markets? It fell behind and didn't offer a helpful alternative for all these users. I still don't think Bitcoin is going anywhere, but it will continue losing in these areas if it doesn't provide any competitive alternatives. Potentially fatally over the long term.