prediction: managing a lightning node in 2035 will be viewed as a quaint lifestyle family business
What makes you think this? The incentives in LN are such that the network topology centralizes over time.
it doesn't centralize if you run a nice reliable node
Reliability is a concern, but liquidity is a concern too. Because of the network topology of LN, you wind up needing nodes with lots of high liquidity channels already open. This creates an incentive to open channels with large nodes, and that leads to everyone creating channels with a handful of nodes with a lot of liquidity, its a centralizing force.