Oddbean

Just realized that I am VERY glad that some of the earliest people to Bitcoin (a tiny fraction of the population) hold a significant amount of the supply. Because these people have a certain set of values. It’s likely that when BlackRock owns a ton of Bitcoin and decides it’s in their interest to lobby the government for more regulation or a 6102-b style move, the earliest bitcoiners’ fortunes will be enormous. In our political system, money is power, and I think it will be a very fortunate thing that a significant amount of influence will rest with those people who have Bitcoin’s best interest - and humanity’s best interest - at heart.

That’s totally possible, too. Depending on how “hyperbitcoinized” the works becomes, and how quickly. I’d much prefer freedom-minded individuals to hold a large amount of global wealth than for BlackRock to hold it. Because how well has that worked so far?

Skewed distribution. Power corrupts, absolute power corrupts absolutely. Sadly, there is no solve for this problem unless those that have the largest wallets distribute their majority amongst the masses. I’d also hesitate assuming the institutions are coming en mass. Why would institutions adopt, en mass, a currency which will eventually topple them over? They’ll cling to the dollar till the last Weimar mark.

Interesting. I started thinking about this from a place of un-ease around the ETFs, not the skewed distribution. The fact that individuals who care about Bitcoin hold more Bitcoin than BlackRock gives me hope that the balance of power will be more fair than it has been before. It’s hard to know what the future holds, both short term and long term. But the same way that individuals who have been paying attention hold Bitcoin today, we should expect institutions to want the hedge as well.

Satoshis wallet is supposedly dead. The rest, until you get to the bottom are custodial accounts. Then, you have the Winkle bros. You trust those POSs to do the right thing? 😆 https://image.nostr.build/29d3e21b77520a091f861ccba896bdcd67828e71f967bcbbd2457fd700a0a0cd.jpg

It certainly does, and it’s possible that they don’t. Although many of those who are public seem to be strongly principled. But compared with BlackRock and JP Morgan execs? I’ll take my chances with the bitcoiners!

“Seem to be” is what keeps my eyes open. But I agree with your sentiment, which, if I am interpreting it correctly, is that if the incentives are right and if we demand more from those with power, or from those who run our institutions, then we would be better off. And I think you’re equating being early to bitcoin as being in line with those incentives.

It’s one reason that I hope hyperbitcoinization happens very slowly. It would mean that “whales” can spend that Bitcoin on goods and services, and donate it to meaningful causes, creating opportunities for others to build wealth in a gradual, grassroots way, (lol no, I don’t mean trickle-down economics), rather than a fiat-driven siphoning of wealth out of the economic system. This theory only works, I think, with a perfectly scarce money that cannot be printed.

Curious as to what makes you believe whales would be inherently prone to do this? Why wouldn’t they buy yachts, Bugattis, and fly themselves to the moon? Many of them, after years of being told their crazy, that they were nuts, may seek their “revenge” by rubbing their new found “wealth” in the face of all their naysayers?

I *think* the earliest ones have already amassed quite a bit of wealth, and - anecdotally speaking - it seems that bitcoiners are generous and well-intentioned, by and large. (Although maybe I’m conflating bitcoiners with nostriches 😉) I think it’s the fiat-minded “crypto” folks who have and will continue to live a conspicuous consumption lifestyle. People like that will always exist. But I know that if my stack someday (long into the future) gives me the means to try and make the world a better place, on a large scale, that I am going to do exactly that. And I believe in human goodness, so I think I’m not the only one who would do so. And as a last resort, humans are self-interested. If Bitcoin becomes so valuable in fiat terms that corporations or governments try to control it, then it’s in the self interest of every bitcoiner out there to push back. And unlike in the cantillon-effect-fiat-world, it would actually be possible to do so.