Oddbean

”You're about to witness something no human in history has ever seen before. What happens when near-infinite demand meets a finite good? Bitcoin is humanity's first finite store of value. No matter how much demand there is for it, you cannot create more. The only way to satisfy demand is to increase the price to levels that convince people to sell. But it gets MUCH harder to convince people to sell when major nation states start stacking. Or when it becomes possible to reliably borrow against your Bitcoin through institutions like Cantor Fitzgerald. Or hedge your stack via reputable options markets. All of this could be reality within the next 6 months. We are on the cusp of a new era for Bitcoin. Trump ran on the promise of establishing a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. And there are multiple people within the government that want the United States to acquire a dominant Bitcoin position as a counter to the BRICS stacking gold. Trump has openly discussed using Bitcoin as a way to escape the $36 Trillion mountain of debt. Two things are certain: 1. If the US starts stacking, every other country will be forced to follow. 2. When that happens, all of the price models and chart squiggles in the world are suddenly irrelevant The gold market cap of ~$17.5 Trillion is an obvious target. $850K per coin. But that's merely a waypoint on a much bigger journey. Why? Because Bitcoin serves the same purpose that gold served for thousands of years... But it's vastly superior in so many ways. The iPhone and a rotary phone are both technically a phone, right? But the iPhone is clearly far more valuable in today's world. Similarly, Bitcoin and gold are both technically hard money stores of value. But one is native to the digital world, finite, and can be sent across the world at the speed of light. While the other one inflates at ~2% per year, needs to be melted down to be verified, and requires a plane to get across the world. Gold isn't an enemy of Bitcoin. It's a precursor to Bitcoin. Nation states ditching sovereign debt in favor of gold is proof that the world needs a non-sovereign store of value. All you have to do next is look at the trajectory of Bitcoin to see where this is headed. Everything is setup for Bitcoin to emerge as the premier store of value for individuals, corporations, nation states, pension funds, and literally anyone else that needs to store value. So you might want to get a little while it's still below $0.5M a coin.”