Only 25% of business economists say the U.S. will have a recession this year, but they worry about China-Taiwan conflict and the 2024 elections
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Only 25% of business economists and analysts expect the United States to fall into recession this year. Any downturn would likely result from an external shock, such as a conflict involving China, rather than from domestic economic factors. Respondents to a National Association of Business Economics survey expect year-over-year inflation to exceed 2.5% through 2024. The Fed has stopped raising rates and has signaled that it expects to reduce rates three times this year. Business forecasters worry that the Fed is keeping rates unnecessarily high. Respondents are concerned about the chances of a conflict between China and Taiwan, conflict in the Middle East driving oil prices above $90 a barrel, political instability in the United States before or after the Nov. 5 presidential election, and U.S. government finances. They believe government budget policy should focus on promoting medium- to long-term growth and reducing the federal deficit and debts. 57% say budget policies need to be more disciplined. 45% of respondents believe the most important objective of government budget policy should be promoting medium- to long-term growth, followed by reducing the federal deficit and debts at 42%. Only 25% of business economists say the U.S. will have a recession this year, but they worry about China-Taiwan conflict and the 2024 elections.

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https://fortune.com/2024/02/12/quarter-business-economists-us-recession-worry-china-taiwan-conflict-2024-elections/