Oddbean

At some point Russia is going to realize that everybody in Ukraine hates them for bombing their villages into dust. There aren't any good options: 1. Genocide the people who hate them 2. Put Russian settlers into Ukraine to try to displace them 3. Draw strange borders so that every region is 2/3rds Russian and 1/3rd Ukrainian Why has Russia bombed entire villages with giant glide bombs? Is that really necessary? Why not just go after military assets? Case in point: Velyka Pysarivka. Was that one of those secret CIA bases the NYT wrote about? Or maybe it was revenge for 24 Feb 2022 when Russia was unable to Invade Ukraine at that point.

There aren't going to be that many Ukrainians left, once you account for the war dead, the people who have fled etc. They're going to be a broken people. Velyka pysarivka was one of those places where the Ukrainians staged their attacks over the border into Russia, so it was always going to be attacked sooner or later. As for the glide bombs...everywhere the Ukrainian army digs in is going to cost either a lot of lives, or a few bombs. The bombs are seriously affecting morale, causing Ukrainian units to refuse to fight, to evacuated and leave areas, so ultimately they might end up saving more lives than they take. Best hope is that the Ukrainians get rid of that coke sniffing comedian and someone sensible begins negotiations as soon as possible. Anything else is encouraging slaughter.

We've seen a lot of new highly effective tactics in the last year: water drones (very hard to detect in the waves at the surface) sinking Russian ships, glide bombs (very hard to shoot down) bombing from many kilometers away, drone zergs (very hard to shoot them all down). It's interesting from a technical perspective.

Their use has been interesting, from early adaptions used to drop grenades, to spotters for artillery, to suicide missions. They've definitely changed the face of warfare. The Ukrainians led the way at the beginning, but it seems Russia learned fast and adopted their use widely. The naval ones have been bloody successful too and I can see autonomous seaborne drone swarms replacing mines to deny access to areas. Did you all see the terminator 1 looking tracked land drones Russia used recently? Fitted with grenade launchers, sent at the front lines to sew chaos, followed, of successful by infantry. That'll evolve further in the future too. Scary stuff.

According to Kiev government numbers I was reading, 26% of eligible Ukrainian conscripts have moved to Russia or Russian-controlled territories. 11% have moved to Western countries. (More simply cannot be found.) I see no reason to doubt those numbers, even if the source has motive. I foresee a lot of resettlement wherever the border ends up, and a lot of families will never be reunited...

Those serving, aren't profiting. And those profiting, aren't serving. Rep. Greene tried to tie the military aid bill to CongressCritters going and serving. That'd bring peace in a few minutes :)

I think the logic is "in for a penny in for a pound" It is very hard to simply double-back and reverse what you've done, given what human pride and politics are like. So I think they are seeking any other exit that isn't a reversal. Also, the US doesn't know how to be diplomatic. Has no history of being diplomatic. Every problem ever has been solved (or tried to be solved) by either toppling a government or bombing a country. When you are the "big dog" you don't need to learn diplomacy.... it's just that the US isn't the big dog for much longer, an alliance is forming against them, and yet their inertia and diplomatic naivete will run them into a brick wall. Groups of humans can't change course on a dime, group think works very differently. The only hope is a very strong willed and intelligent president that can force the rudder .... no candidate comes to mind.

if you watched Tucker Putin interview it is pretty clear what motivates Putin. he considers Ukraine vitally important and can't allow the west to gradually absorb Ukraine while simultaneously keeping Russia out of the same club. Because Ukraine is historically much closer to Russia than to the West Putin feels that Russia should exercise greater sway in Ukraine than the west does yet lately it has been the opposite because Ukrainians never really liked Russia, at least not since Stalin's Holodomor of Ukrainians and Ukrainians would rather be a second rate province of EU than a second rate province of Russian Federation. both Putin and the west tried to meddle in Ukraine's politics but the West has won in that arena, humiliating Putin and making him desperate - ultimately causing him to turn to military as the final resort. Idiots in Russia believe that Ukraine is a threat to them just like idiots in America believed that Saddam Hussein was a threat to America and war benefits all in power on every side of the conflict ... this is why the war continues ... it benefits those who are smart and those who are stupid believe that it benefits them ... will Ukrainians hate Russia ? as i said Stalin already Genocided Ukrainians before. and Americans had beef with the British. basically people can put their hate aside if the conflict ends ... the problem in Israel isn't the hate - it's that the conflict isn't ending ... we can't ask people to put hate aside so that conflict may end. we have to end the conflict and then the hate will eventually subside ... except the conflict in Palestine won't end until Israel murders everyone in the entire middle east ... what is the end game for Ukraine ? i have no idea.

the line between Russia / Ukraine and Russians / Ukrainians is blurry as Putin tried to explain to Tucker but Tucker thought it wasn't dumb enough of a discussion for American viewers who can't wipe their own ass ...

The part of Russia that the Russian leadership cares about (Moscow) can't easily be invaded by ground forces from anywhere other than Ukraine. Ukraine is the way that region has historically always been invaded. Ukraine is Russia's achilles heel. So of course they are concerned about who controls it. No, the West wasn't lining up in Ukraine to attack Russia, but these kinds of weaknesses need to be "nipped in the bud". Also, Russia has been in Sevastopol, their only warm water port, since 1783 (when it was Ukrainian, they were on good terms and Russia leased it). Based on the battle lines I'm convinced Russia wanted a land bridge to that port since the Kerch bridge is vulnerable. Despite what anybody says to the contrary; the battle lines speak louder than words. I think Russia should stay the fuck out of Western Ukraine. And I expect they will. If Russia ends up keeping everything East of Moldova and South of Kharkiv (the yellow region, see this map in this note: nostr:nevent1qqstl4ahamehgtjeskl9q320ms73ltwzpx7tm3q3z87smg8pvs6snmgpzpmhxue69uhkztnwdaejumr0dshszyrhwden5te0v5hxummn9ekx7mp0qy88wumn8ghj7mn0wvhxcmmv9umrl307) and it stops there, maybe a peace can eventually be had. Russia gets their port. Kiev and Western Ukraine remain an independent sovereign country. If Russia tries to go further then that, I think NATO will put boots on the ground and escalate massively.

Good points, except re NATO boots. NATO boots would have been there within hours if Kiev had managed to secure the Donbasd plus "historically Ukrainian" Belgorod and Rostov last summer. That would mean Ukrainians had done the hard fighting, Moscow wasn't willing to nuke, and the oilfields needed democracy. Just as the 1918-22 "Allied Intervention" had hoped. But last summer's offensive went nowhere. And the harder Kiev loses, the LESS Western leaders will even take Kiev's calls. No boots for you, Volodomyr...

Yeah I get what you are saying. But if I were a Western leader and had to pretend that Putin is Hitler and will march right into Europe while actually believing that Putin won't even enter Western Ukraine (but not saying that out loud)... but then Putin did actually enter Western Ukraine... then I would have to reassess WTF is actually going on, and at that point I think the reassessment might well be that Putin is actually marching on Europe. I only make the point to say "I don't believe Putin is marching on Europe, but I will believe it if it happens."

"If I were a Western leader and had to pretend..." Nah, I'd do a Reichstag fire and distract my idiot voters. Actually, a sex tape that ends with a Reichstag fire lit by Bitcoiners. Otherwise, 100% agree.

The West may put boots on the ground anyways. First Macron suggested it and everyone poo-pooed it. Then he suggested it again. Then others chimed in. And we have this from redacted: https://rumble.com/v4restl-here-we-go-europe-ready-to-send-troops-to-ukraine-to-stop-putins-move-redac.html which quotes an article about it. Problem is Ukraine is running out of soldiers. If Europeans don't put boots on the ground they have to end the war, and it seems they are willing to anything except end the war.

In terms of military potential, Russia reaching the Poltava is 90% of the way to Russia reaching the Atlantic. European troops would be a mere speedbump without air defense and artillery. USA would do better, but logistics would be a stretch. I'm confident VVP doesn't want any of that responsibility and expense, but he won't rule forever.

You need to study this region more, mate. Whatever the western media is claiming is not the case. Genocide... Russian tanks crossed into Ukraine via border checkpoints without firing a single shot. The only fighting in the annexed regions was against Kiev's forces, in some since 2014. https://image.nostr.build/3cabc94fbee4443220eff55b954572354d8db49ff53137321f3703f49d815208.jpg

I have that map and many more. I'm fully aware of the ethnic breakdown. And I think some Russians in the Donbass were at civil war with Kiev and wanted Russia's assitance. But also Russia was very unhappy with the 2014 coup and was eager to get involved with their little green men. I'm aware of the 2014 CIA involvement and I have a lot of evidence of it (including a 200 page pdf). But this is not conclusive proof that all of Eastern Ukraine wants to be Russia. Consider this: do Mexicans living in Los Angeles want that region to be controlled by Mexico? No. Just because Russians were living in Ukraine doesn't mean those Russians want to live under Russian administration. And without going and asking everybody, there is no way to know for sure. I know Russia took a vote, but I don't have a lot of confidence in that vote. In summary, nobody's story is sufficiently proven to a strong enough degree that I'm willing to take that side... therefore I remain in the middle, undecided, open minded. Trust me when I say that I don't trust the Western media. But that doesn't mean I automatically believe the opposite either. I mentioned genocide as one of the horrible options Russia could take in the future to deal with the problem I brought up... it was not an accusation of what they have been doing.

Good points, except for the vote bit. There were international observers, and irregularities were minimal. The outcome was never in doubt, though the size of the landslide was. Mexican-Americans in L.A might not want to be ruled by Mexico. But if the alternative was being ruled by Crips and Bloods working for Iranian intelligence, I can guess which way the dice would fall...

Fair points. I'd argue Kiev would sooner resort to genocide as they have been desperately shelling eastern regions since the 2014 coup, literally killing other ukrainians. This serves as an example to all the other eastern (mostly russian-speaking) regions to be cautious in proclaiming they are against Kiev. Naturally Putin's tanks skewed this risk. The votes are just for show, but if there was genuine resistance in the annexed regions, the west would be all over it and use it in the media too. There's no good guys in this conflict, only global powers and their local puppets, everybody else is simply a victim of the forced redistribution of land, property and capital destruction. War is hell, but it is also a racket and Putin wasted no time to push through the same dystopian CBDC agenda that is kreeping in west.

I strongly recommend you do some more reading on this whole affair. A good start are the following books by Jacques Baud: - Operation Z - The Hidden Truth of the War in Ukraine Revealed - The Russian Art of War - How the West led Ukraine to defeat These books are a very good start to understand what is happening there.