Oddbean

More likely the price bleeds down into the mid/low 50s over next month (or 2) on further deteriorating sentiment and speculators/short term holders continuing to capitulate. Setting up for a ripping rally in Aug-Nov that takes price violently through ATHs and touching 100k for the first time. Just as Fed is pivoting to mop up all the treasuries coming home to roost. 💵 🔥 I’ve been buying all along the way, and will continue to until we make new ATHs. 😉

IMO, since we have a perpetual bid (ETF's) I just don't see how the selling pressure can get to the point that we see low to mid 50K. My bet is that if we hit 60k, that is the floor. Of course, nobody knows and I am always taken back by the volatility of BTC.

Curious. Why do you think there is a consistent and “perpetual bid” from the ETFs? As we speak, we are on day 7 of consecutive OUTFLOWS from the ETFs. IMO (as a former wall st guy), The ETFs are more than anything, a momentum trading vehicle. Up AND down. Hence, they are selling now as there is no upward momentum for the time being. In fact, if we do hit low 50’s again, the ETFs will likely be the weak marginal seller that creates that low! Just food for thought 😉 PS Once this overhang clears and we make new ATHs, the ETFs will almost surely pile back in and drive the next part of this cycle higher than even you and I imagine. That’s the ride we are in for now with the wall st traders in the flow. 🤪

Yes. I agree. I say perpetual bid because on a log chart they will be always look like buyer’s. The Hedge Fund Carry Trade unwind continues and I think that the suits will learn the hard way by trying to outsmart this asset and failing. I know I did. Just about everyone I know did. I look at each of my BTC purchases as its own 4 year minimum hold period.

Yah. I’m not smart enough to trade this asset. It usually does the opposite of what I think. When I stop thinking it goes up. I understand the long term benefits and will stick to that otherwise I’m just gambling 🤪