Bitcoin's market cap isn't really relevant in the way that stocks are. You can't run a valuation. It's just supply and demand based off everyone's vibes at the time. 

So the price is derived from the few Bitcoin that get traded and then multiplied by 20 million. 

If only a few Bitcoin are avaliable for sale you can jack the market cap by billions and billions with not a lot of money. 

Technically that could be Gold too but the vibes are different with that. It's run through it's phase of price discovery.

My thesis is that money flows to Bitcoin when the global liquidity increases because people seek growth and scarcity and money flows to gold when global liquidity goes down because money gets consolidated in safer/more secure assets. 

ATM gold trades on recession / war fears, Bitcoin trades on rate cuts and economic growth.  

 V interesting food for thought. Thanks! 

 This is making more sense after a couple days.

When I look at BTC tops in relation to US elections I get 12-13 months from election to BTC top which I think backs up your these wrt BTC and liquidity as new US govts seem to kick off new spending via debt.

M2 Global carries on peaking for around 6 months post BTC top and then it declines and we do another 4 year biz cycle based on elections according to my analysis. 

Are BTC tops as simple as understanding Global M2? 

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