Oddbean

GM nostriches, keep it classy, get some sunshine, and here is a little note on where we are in mining and the halving. I’m just an average guy, but have explored mining a little, also, if you get to the end, I have had some research training along the way, so fingers cross, you don’t think what I’ve written is complete BS. How’s about an update on how things are looking for the average #bitcoin miner going into the #halving, who knows how long it will take to return to pre halving $usd value for the subsidy. But what about a new graph with some new insight? Looking at the first graph, after the halving it took up to 175 for revenues to reach pre halving overs, which is at times called the miners “valley of death” (I think or I just made that up). Also worth noting is that when prices returned to those levels, in both 2016 and 2020 there was quite a bit of resistance making it back over that level (something worth remembering in the coming months), but this is oh so short term. Current mining rewards mean nothing, if you got into mining closer to all highs, it is likely that you would only be comfortable once post halving rewards exceeded pre halving all time high block rewards. (Current block rewards)/(all time high block rewards). Remember $corz?!?!? They aped in with leverage and loans and once price started to turn, 💀. If you get into mining at ATHs, you’re going to have been under water for a while. But look at the yellow dots (graph 2), we are already at all time highs, this time is different by quite a way. If prices were where they were 4 years ago, there would likely be much less interest in #bitcoin mining and many more miners struggling. Miner rewards in previous cycles post halving went down to under 20% of their all time rewards, this cycle they are unlikely to dip much below 40%, so miner profitability is likely under much less pressure this time around. Having said that, a 50% cut in revenue (not profit) will likely affect all miners, with only the best financed, best managed with cheapest power are likely to survive/flourish, I’m looking at you $clsk and barefoot!!!!! In epoch 2, it took over 300 days to get back to miner profits being what they were at the previous ATH!!!! But, but, but my friend, this is only part of the complex system that is mining, rewards are distributed across the entire network and that has been growing for 4 years. Given hashrate (or your miners’ share of the network) has increased quite dramatically/exponentially since 2012: hashrate increased from 0.78 exahash in 2016 to 97 exahash in 2020 (blockchain.com), what miners earn has also reduced significantly. As a result, rather than block rewards, fees or fiat price per coin, miners tend to give more attention to hashprice, or basically what they can expect to earn for each tera or peta hash provided to the network per day. Hash price peaked in late 2017 at nearly$3500 per day/peta hash but by Jan 2020 was around $150 per day/petahash $0.15 per th, but again, this is not the full story, how much did it cost a miner to provide that hash rate to the network,how many dollars are they making per machine? This is fag packet maths, but if you happened to have an S9 at the peak, it was still profitable mining with energy costing you over $1 per KWh!!!!! That point in history when you could actual plug a miner into a wall socket and print money!!!! So, let’s put a little practice and numbers into this theory, going into the 2020 #halving a miner could make $0.1272 per day/tera hash. After the halving that was 0.07636. This means that your average S19 with 95T and 34j/Th (thanks BLOCKWARE solutions for an insightful case study) would be making (after 8c/kWh power) $1.325 worth of bitcoin per day. During this period it took Hash price 175 days (nearly 6 months) after the 2020 halving to get back to the level it was pre halving, that is a long time for a miner to be operating with a reduced revenue. Good job this theoretical person bought the newest generation miner! Today, a lovely new S21, 195T, with an efficiency of 17.5 watts/terahash (thanks bitmain.com), with hash price at a very respectacle $0.108 per day/terahash and again 8c per kWh, this can earn you $14.42 per day 🙌, today. However, come Saturday (🤞), rewards halve, but power costs stay the same, meaning profit will drop to $3.85 per day, even for the best miner on the market (at the moment). FYI, if price at the halving was around $32k, even an s21 would only just breakeven. If miners don’t have the latest generation miners, they will have difficulty staying profitable (makes sense). Our friendly s19 from earlier makes $4.37/day today, but after Saturday (🤞) it would effectively cost you $71.7k to mine a #bitcoin. While miners are likely tied into fixed price power contracts, if they haven’t got strong cash positions, it is only a matter of time before this starts causing problems, unless price starts to rip! Look back on those yellow dots from earlier, we hate saying it and cringe whenever we hear it, but even if the institutions and etf’s have affected things, this time appears to be quite different! Good work in making it is far, I think the numbers get pretty close and would have ideally had data for graphs through to the end, but wasn’t able to get hold of it, please be kind, I’m trained in qualitative research not quants, I tried my best!!!! Peace. ✌🏻#grownostr #minebitcoin #halfining. Now time to wake up the fam and turn on the #coffeechain. Pura Vida. https://image.nostr.build/f84b66a034e0332bbda397c29ffff611fd9e82adcf236d82c0897eeadab487fb.jpg https://image.nostr.build/f2359818a7d8d18f5ac5506a08c687e8b5081bd0db7cc0f8181be2cd8ee2adbf.jpg https://image.nostr.build/639dbf17e0c29469382d2cbfe31634cd9a5b9a1aa1d87af69ba1fb5a346a9bb2.jpg https://image.nostr.build/ac054581b402a3a397ab904befaf13ce48d0adc1406e106fd0d74c2b5e4517e5.jpg