Pay attention.  There’s a rather big meeting among #China’s leadership this week and will conclude on the 8th.  

Expect blaring headlines of some massive “stimulus”. Upwards of Rmb10tr.  Also note, however, that this isn’t actually stimulus.  

Whatever number is announced, assuming there is one, will be for funds applied to (1) a bank recapitalization program and (2) expanding the debt swap program among local governments.  

This provides net zero economic support.  Deleveraging remains the priority even if one type of debt is being recirculated into a new type of debt.  

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/04/china-gears-up-for-big-week-ahead-of-us-elections-stimulus-hopes.html 

 Agreed. Just looks like a massive debt swap. They’ve also been dumping big amounts of copper on international markets, definitely not an indicator they are ready to grow again. 

 Well, when the aim in #China is to fundamentally shift away from property as a key economic growth engine demand for all sorts of raw commodities will be hit hard. 

This is one reason also why I believe the copper-to-gold ratio is now flawed as an economic predictor.  On the one hand the market is having to take out the China trade and that is big.  Additionally, demand for gold is surging off new drivers both at the nation-state level and among households.  

The dynamics which were in play over the past +30 years have changed. 

 That sounds hugely inflationary