Most past examples saw rate cuts being triggered by a major recession.
The current macro conditions are a bit unusual (some weakness and some strength), but are similar in some ways to the mid-1990s, when the Fed also cut rates, but there wasn’t a major market crash. In fact, it helped kick off the late 1990s dot com bubble.
What about the election cycle? Some curve balls there I’d expect.
Probably risk off a little bit this month and next because uncertainty of the upcoming election. This seems like the typical pattern in election years. September down and some Octobers red. Then take off after the election. We shall see.
Agreed.
I’d throw “rate cuts” into the same basket. Cautious at first for risk assets then not so much in the out QTR’s.
Time will tell. Don’t use leverage & stay solvent & time is on your side either way. 🫡
Fair points. With election coming up I'd assume it would be risk off until after election day or when there is a clearer picture of who is the clear favorite to win.
Nice thing about Nostr is people. have these conversations without being inundated by a bunch of idiots drawing lines on graphs.
I hear risk on and risk off being talked about but what does it actually mean? Would be grateful if you have the time to enlighten me.
Risk on: "risky" assets. Stocks, bitcoin. Risk off: bonds, gold.
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