Oddbean new post about login | logout Bitcoinprediction.market election odds: Trump: 69% chance Harris: 41% chance 7 million sats bet (~$4.6k USD) so far https://m.primal.net/Lefa.jpg
win 50% more for a trump win and up to 2.5 times more on a kamala win. Trump has some good odds, but don't forget to gamble on kamala too in case of election interference. Both sides serve the same master nostr:nevent1qqsq628m2qzzlr46zy5a2xp8haylvaw9vfe9tmzr76u9ymtf7r0fewcpzamhxue69uhhyetvv9ujuurjd9kkzmpwdejhgtczyrsu0ghxz7s06fdgkwgh38v253n3c8tpm7scqxhx9khfnuamlkjrwqcyqqqqqqgjyzzge
Who's doing this? Amazing but i couldn't find the info if you can exit the bet be fore the event
Founder here. Yeah you can’t exit the bets, it’s similar format to a horse race. If you bet correctly we’ll send you a payout to your lightning address, after overwhelming consensus is reached as to who is elected. I’m guessing there will be some conflict after voting is done, so we’ll wait to resolve until after news media + polymarket resolves. We’re currently building a mechanism to trade shares with Bitcoin (on-chain + Lightning). Then we can list events that are much further in the future, which is what I’m personally excited about.
Why are there 4 possible bets instead of 2 possible bets? A "yes" for Trump is is not the same as a "no" for Harris?
That’s just a design choice. You can get different odds by betting on one outcome or the other.
