I think everything you say is reasonable long-term if historical trends continue...

But as for the exposing yourself to loss on the scale of minutes comment is kind of silly. I don't think short term is the same. For example there are years, months, weeks, and days where Monero outperforms Bitcoin. Most of 2020 and all of the year of 2022 you would have made money if you swapped into Monero (it shows this in your own chart). The last 5 months straight (before September) Monero outperformed Bitcoin this year.

For swapping short term it is anyones guess which will do better. Sometimes you will be up, sometimes down. It pretty much cancels out on short time scales.