Oddbean new post about login | logout 101 on how gold was confiscated: You had to turn it in for dollars by a deadline prior to dollar devaluation, and there were massive prison consequences for not turning it in, but little resources in terms of investigating who didn’t turn it in. That would be expensive. So it was fear based. Focusing on illegality and tail risks on edge cases more than enforcement on average. Institutions had to comply immediately, since it’s all visible. So the government broke liquidity in the domestic gold market, which was enough for their purposes. Gold became a hard-to-trade illegal relic for those that held it. If a small family hodled some extra bars for 40 years until it became legal again, they did okay. But can the government track bitcoin in the 2020s better or worse than gold in 1930s for enforcement purposes? That’s the right question. And don’t just think of confiscation. Think of 70% selective taxes and things like that. Far more within the current rule of law. That’s the sophisticated approach. Don’t take it. Selectively tax it by a lot. Those are the politics to push against from a bitcoin perspective.
That's why they hit samurai first, need those tracking abilities
Take of the day
Or create entities that gobble up a lot of the market and encourage custody for another large swath to erode the key holders. Works the same as confiscation, allows for paper products, avoids the need for negative feedback of tax, etc.
It’s an interesting thought experiment to imagine if your government gave you 30 days to move your cold storage bitcoin to a regulated custodian or risk penalty, and more importantly, never be able to spend it. For those of us with a significant portion of our net worth in cold storage it would be a hard decision. There is a path where you wait it out and hope the laws become more favorable at some point but I can’t say what I’d do in that situation. I’d obviously hate to do it but I’d hate being a lot poorer too.
Complying with such an order will not save you from being a lot poorer. They will take everything so you might as well hodl.
We’re talking millions of dollars. You can honestly say you’d give up millions of dollars and go back to work as a wage slave to survive rather than use a custodian?
Yes
What?! Why not just move to a friendly jurisdiction?
Certainly an option and probably what I would do as I already have options in place. But not practical for some people. Similar to Nazi Germany in the years leading up to the war. Some who saw what was coming stayed anyway because of family ties, responsibility to those around them, businesses, love of country, etc. I’m just trying to say that it’s easy to be ideological but when faced with it, it gets complicated for those who have a lot to lose. Obviously the “right” thing to do is get out, but who and what are you leaving behind. It’s seems mad in hindsight that people don’t flee oppressive regimes but most comply and stay where they are.
Yup
If the govt bans or confiscates via tax as Lyn mentioned it’s basically all out war and game over. Political and education path seems the path of least resistance.
Thank you @LynAlden I always appreciate your thoughtful replies! I always wrestle with the question of if bitcoin does too well it’s just as much of a problem for those that own it because surely there will be consequences. Suggests to one there’s power in numbers and best way to prevent this outcome is radically increasing public awareness and adoption of Bitcoin through self custody. Can the govt track Bitcoin is the question you raised. Feels like all the KYC and legal requirement to share transactions almost surely makes sure all the new purchasers are tracked. Hence the only people who can “HODL the gold bars for 40 years” are those who really kept strict anonymity during their HODL’ing Rest must rely on political measures to ensure safety of their assets.
Hmmm... So basically anyone that has purchased BTC from an exchange and put it on their hardware wallet without obscuring it is screwed if the gov was to selectively tax BTC...
Just coinjoin it
No, the KYC trail is there. Coinjoin doesn't help shit for that
Yup
Coinjoin is forward privacy.
Curious to know what you mean by forward privacy
They still know how much you bought and will hold you responsible for it.
But you lost the keys or it was hacked and stolen.
Pretty sure the response would be “NOP (not our problem)”
Feels that way right? Political pressure + education + mass adoption seems like a path of least resistance
I IMAGINE THE GAME BEING PLAYED WITH THE ETF’S ID GOING TO TAKE A BIT OF TIME TO FULLY PLAY OUT AND WHILE THAT HAPPENS THOSE IN POWER WILL MASSAGE WHATEVER PLAN THEY HAVE TO ATTEMPT SOME TYPE OF TAKEOVER… I WOULD POSIT THAT ANOTHER GOOD QUESTION IS…WELL BITCOIN BE RESILIENT ENOUGH TO FIGHT OF WHATEVER ATTACK THEY THROW AT IT? IF I WERE PLAYING 5-D CHESS…. AND IF I HELD THE POWER AND THE PURSE STRINGS….I WOULD CONVINCE THE MASSES THAT BITCOIN HAS SAVED THEM AND KEEP SELLING BITCOIN ETF’S BACKED BY NOTHING, NOT PROVING MY BITCOIN BACKING IE…COINBASE AND THEM RUG AS MANY AS POSSIBLE IN ORDER TO TURN AS MANY PEOPLE AS POSSIBLE AGAINST BITCOIN… THEM YOU COME IN AND SAVE THE DAY WITH YOUR CBDC OR WHATEVER AND CONTINUE THE FIGHT…. I MEAN BITCOIN WINS IN THE END NO MATTER WHAT BUT DO NOT FORGET… THOSE THAT WIELD THE GREATEST POWER ARE THOSE THAT MAKE KINGS AND PRESIDENTS…THEY ARE NOT NECESSARILY THE SAME PEOPLE HOLDING THOSE TITLES!!! BITCOINS SHOULD NOT BE COUNTING THEIR CHICKENS BEFORE THEY HATCH… BITCOIN NEEDS TO BE IN THE HANDS OF THE MASSES FIRST!
Agreed education, mass adoption & political pressure
stop screaming – this doesn‘t fortify your point.
OH I’M SCREAMING IM YOUR HEAD AS YOUR READING THIS AM I? SO LET ME ASK YOU THIS… WHY ARE YOU INTERPRETING MY USAGE OF ALL CAPS AS SCREAMING? I WOULD ALSO LIKE TO GENTLY SUGGEST TO YOU THAT IT ISN’T REALLY NICE TO TELL OTHERS WHAT TO DO OR NOT TO DO? I AM CERTAINLY NOT SCREAMING - TYPING IN ALL CAPS I HAVE FOUND SIMPLY ALLOWS ME TO NOT HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT WHAT I AM OR I AM NOT GOING TO EMPHASIZE :)
This is why we all had boating accidents. And why we must eventually become our own nation. Or create the privacy tech to enforce the equivalent of statehood. Software is better than guns. But we shall always have guns as a backup.
Boating accident doesn't help shit if it's all KYC'd
I don’t think you understand the function of boating accidents. You see, when you go to un-kyc your coins, you realize you can’t because someone else found your keys and un-kyc’d them to themselves.
What does it mean "to un-kyc your coins", practically speaking?
Coinjoin, joinmarket, wasabi/samourai, etc These are means of enforcing your right to privacy from third party and government snoops.
OK, and how do you define "boating accident" precisely? You gonna tell the feds you literally lost your private key? Or something else e.g. your wallet was hacked
You learn to say: I don’t answer questions.
Aight, will be interesting to see how that plays out in worst case scenarios Lyn is considering.
Yup. If you bend over and make it easy for them to steal from you, they will.
Using KYC services is bending over
Yup. And un-kycing your coins is the opposite.
Sure, if you like taking it in the first place
You can pay through the nose for non-KYC sats. Or you can create them for less.
I pay 0% premium for no-KYC sats
If you’re getting a discount, you might be buying from a criminal. KYS.
lmfao get some principles. First you say "don't bend over" and now you're worried about them?
I think it's incredibly naive to think that you're going to dis-intermediate the bankers that run the world and when their enforcement division comes at you, you're going to tell them, "I'm not going to answer any questions." And you rhink they're just going to walk away and leave you alone. Theyre not. They're going to have your keys or they're going to kill you to take your UTXOs off the board. That is how power works.
What are you saying? That the promise of bitcoin will fail when facing the powers that be? If not safety in numbers than what?
Without privacy, you have no wealth. There will always be a bigger, better armed bully. Therefore, lack of Bitcoin privacy jeapordizes its censorship resistance. also "boating accidents" on a transparent ledger are a farce. nobody is going to believe that shit.
It’s true we could be forced to reject the founding documents of America and essentially lose our nation. But that’s why we have guns. An armed populace is necessary to maintain the security of a free state. Arms aren’t necessary if we give up freedom and/or security.
Yup not happening youre KYC’ed. Only way was the OG’s who are never moving their coin
Push us hard enough, and we'll simply concentrate on developing the parallel economy. Sure, to start with it will be difficult to purchase closely regulated/taxed things like real estate, but I don't expect a bunch of highly motivated paranoid crypto anarchists not to rise to the challenge. I say bring it on.
Parallel economy doesn’t work in a single govt rule. Love the enthusiasm just not sure how would you implement something to be a parallel economy? Education, mass adoption and political cover is what is the middle ground which doesn’t cause all the systems to burn down
It would be a shame to see a country come to these measures. I would be forced to consider casting my vote by foot
Shame? yes. Unrealistic? Nope. Has Happened many many many times in history. Listen to Revolutions podcast (https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/revolutions/id703889772) Every revolution was fundamentally a money problem.
Unless they anticipate that and increase the exit tax on bitcoin
I lost the keys to that stuff years ago.
You’d be surprised how easily coins can be traced back to you when you eventually want to spend them. Very risky.
A 70% tax would be an assault on people’s well being. Men have gone to war over far less. The risk of government recourse fades to the background in that scenario.
It could be any percentage. The point is, people are not as protected as they think.
No doubt about that.
Great thread nostr:nevent1qqsq6c09kv50uf24mkat2q8qk5lgwljv59awhke7f2n44pdzk9n96aspzamhxue69uhhyetvv9ujuurjd9kkzmpwdejhgtczyr4tpe6k6v4cp0x5vneas39cqspsxp66z04tcdve5a3vntr6hy057qcyqqqqqqgfv9unm
Not sure how much political pushing can be done when most people at the time will be no-coiners who would happily vote for taxing the “rich crypto bros.” Assume it’s coming decide whether to live free or die.* *bend the knee and pay the tax
Checkout what @joenakamoto and others are doing in pursuing education of the political class..there is a way and many are after it. It doesn’t have to end everything falling apart
It’s relatively easy to track but it is also easy to lose your key and find it back much later
Not really, because the second it moves, the government tax agents are going to visit you and say, I thought you lost that key, didn't you? How did it move then?
Yup! Basically this
Yeah. I just mean it gives time to wait and to move
fair point
Also interesting to consider how the game theory may play out at government level. Government is made of people who, some of them at least, will want their share of Bitcoin. They may not have strong incentives to push for confiscatory laws.
Reminds me of top 2007 commodity peak. Envious of the profits of bhp and rio, Australian government came out with superprofits tax on resources companies to appese Australians. Marked the top as well, prices started crashing with the GFC, let’s see how btc will run and how they react.
So Monero is the way to go?
this right here
Wise words! The government that taxes beyond a certain tipping point will probably be voted out in due course. HODL through if you can. The tax revenue raised will diminish at a certain level as people will not comply and black markets develop.
This is why the Bitcoin ETF is picking up nickles in front of a steam roller. You get price exposure, but it's capped because at some point when the USG is ready to debase for real, they say, "naw, we're done letting this thing run - we'll cash you out now at a price of our choosing."
do you think saylor doesn't know this at all, or is he just playing dumb for some justifiable reason?
@LynAlden Just last week during a press conference an Italian deputy Finance Minister said: “Since it’s spreading more and more, WE PLAN to increase capital gain tax on Bitcoin from 26% to 42%.” 26% is the ordinary capital gain tax here, but they’re still hungry as you can see. Last year it became compulsory to “declare” bitcoins owned to the Italian IRS. Don’t know how many actually did it…
Great message, @LynAlden
Tax can be ugly, e.g. taxing unrealized gains. Surely no government would be stupid enough (although some are stupid enough to talk of it). https://media.tenor.com/MLd4VbHMB9gAAAAC/south-park-beautiful-money.gif
nostr:nprofile1qqsw4v882mfjhq9u63j08kzyhqzqxqc8tgf740p4nxnk9jdv02u37ncpz4mhxue69uhhyetvv9uju6mpd4czuumfw3jsz9nhwden5te0wfjkccte9ec8y6tdv9kzumn9wsq3yamnwvaz7tmsw4e8qmr9wpskwtn9wvql3tqm I still have yet to read a story of a regular person getting penalties for not turning in their gold. In many, many years of viewing people share this story, I'd like to see that other side of it.
We’re also talking about the Great Depression. There was a need for quick liquidity, so if the government was “handing out” cash I’m sure it was gladly accepted for small trinkets of gold lying around. Let’s put it this way, a migrant family living in a New York City tenement building isn’t sitting on bars of gold.
Would be interesting to know about the land-owning families of successful prospectors in the west. Those that made moderate fortunes through gold. Come to think of it, what happened to the gold mining industry as a whole during this time?
Mother-in-law's mother, coming over from Germany (through Ellis Island) smuggled gold coins in the hem of her dress. Family still has them, may have to convince them to convert to Digital Gold and no seeds to sew except for the 12 in your head.
At this point, they are family heirlooms that tell an important story about your family history. I think it would be honoring her legacy to keep them so that you can keep her story alive for the future generations of your family.
Absolutely
nostr:nprofile1qqs2xs05tluhtr6hpgsmqqxp04898gayjlyrjlexcrndv8j6el784xqprpmhxue69uhkv6tvw3jhytnwdaehgu3wwa5kuef0n8wwmn
Welp, that’s making me rethink the “conventional wisdom” (if it’s old enough to call it that) of holding a KYC stack alongside a KYC-free stack….
Why have any that remain KYC?
In case it becomes unnecessarily difficult to spend the non-KYC stack
🎯
If businesses and people generally refuse to accept non-KYCed coins, might as well just use fiat until amount of people with a spine improves.
Generally agree but please stop pushing the "gold confiscation" hoax. An Executive Order by POTUS only applies to the Executive Dept. of the federal gov't. The President cannot make law by fiat.
40 years? Pfff ₿itcoiners are hodling for 1,000 years.
Fear, not enforcement. Can they track Bitcoin better? Doubt it. But watch out for 'selective taxes' - the sophisticated way to strangle freedom 💸
How so? Seems pretty easy to track once you purchase on a KYC exchange no? Curious how you avoid that?
Do we have a good ol’ Bitcoin Voter’s Club in the world yet? A good, concise list of what to vote for, where to vote for it, with a social layer on top to help communication?
Basically, it is about confiscation, using an unjust law to create fear of its non-compliance and its illegality. That is coercion in every sense of the word. Monopoly of violence in action.
Yes and nothing you can do to stop it except find an exit (physically from the state which enshrined it). And that leaves the question where do you go? And it’s back to same problem because if they are doing it here believe me capital flight is already thought through and doors shut.
so glad Monero is a thing
how does Monero help to prevent governments from taxing bitcoin?
It doesn't, but if people who use bitcoin used Monero instead, they could not be taxed because they could not be found.
I'm not following, if you use a centralised exchange *which is what we are discussing here) Monero would be taxed too.
Why would anybody be dumb enough to use a centralized exchange? We've had this technology for 15 years and the technology has not failed, but the exchanges around the technology have failed more than once and will continue doing so.
Because decentralised exchanges are sadly not ready for large amounts of money. I'm not defending centralisation, I hope we move towards that way. My point here is that bitcoin can also be used in decentralised exchanges, you don't need monero.
Of course, Bitcoin can be used on a decentralized exchange. However, most Bitcoin is obtained through centralized exchanges with no-year customer, and therefore reduces the anonymity of people who use decentralized exchanges, making Monero more of a need.
This was also about confiscation. Obviously it's more difficult to tax/confiscate something you don't know someone still owns or is harder to surveil. Even when buying Monero from one of the few centralized exchanges left that offer it - as soon as it leaves the exchange the trail is lost by default. Bitcoin: You say you lost your keys? "We see it clearly moved after you told us that" Someone hacked your keys? You sent to the wrong address? "We see you later consolidated Bitcoin from your 'hacked' keys/burnt coins with your current Bitcoin" Coinjoined to throw them off the trail? "You mixed your funds with these criminal proceeds, so now you're a suspect (even if you're truly not)" i.e. Roman Sterlingov There are still ways to mess up on Monero too, and you can do things on Bitcoin to avoid the things above (requires relatively large time commitment to learn and constant maintenance going into the future, which you or your heirs can still accidentally mess up later) but there are far more ways to screw up on Bitcoin. All things equal, Bitcoin is much worse for plausible deniability.
Thanks nostr:nprofile1qqsw4v882mfjhq9u63j08kzyhqzqxqc8tgf740p4nxnk9jdv02u37ncpz4mhxue69uhhyetvv9uju6mpd4czuumfw3jsz9nhwden5te0wfjkccte9ec8y6tdv9kzumn9wsq3yamnwvaz7tmsw4e8qmr9wpskwtn9wvql3tqm for your hands on reply. Cool to benefit from your knowledge nostr:nevent1qqsq6c09kv50uf24mkat2q8qk5lgwljv59awhke7f2n44pdzk9n96aspz4mhxue69uhhyetvv9ujuerpd46hxtnfduhsyg82krn4d5etsz7dge8nmpztspqrqvr45yl2hs6enfmzexk84wglfupsgqqqqqqsysd7ev
@candidwolf throughout history, when governments felt their power slipping they often reached for the people’s wealth. And gold has been a prime target. In 1933, through executive order 1602, American citizens were required to turn in their #gold for devalued dollars, with severe prison penalties hanging over those who didn’t comply. But that’s the catch: enforcement was based on fear, not resources. Something that is a lot easier today. Tracking individuals would have been too costly. So it was the shilling effect that did that job. Banks and institutions had no choice but to comply, which was enough to break liquidity in the gold market and render private holdings practically useless. Compare that to today: governments like Israel are considering restricting precious metal ownership under the banner of f’inancial crime prevention’. Typical Israel right? History repeats itself but this time the strongest money man ever created today is in what the state can’t touch, unlike gold. @lynalden is right. This isn’t just about confiscation anymore. The bigger threat could be selective heavy taxation or hidden barriers that undermine financial #freedom. Bitcoin yet remains our hope. Here is a graph about the topic. I had posted on Twitter before getting suspended. I updated yesterday. I hope you find it insightful.👇🏽 https://m.primal.net/LfqZ.png
@candid wolf @preston @jack @jackmallers @LynAlden Two people (that i could find) were prosecuted under E.O. 6102. One was indicted (United States v. Levy (1934) and one (Frederick Barber Campbell) was acquitted on a "technically". Executive Orders are not intended to apply to anyone outside of the Executive Branch of the government. The defence justified the latter case under the "trading with the enemy act" and was dismissed. Most prosecutions were brought (still only a handful), not under FDR’s Executive Order, but under the Act of Congress, "the Gold Reserve Act of 1934." this act lead to the issuance of Executive Orders 6260 and 6261. The International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) Amendments of 1974 This act, signed into law by President Gerald Ford on December 31, 1973 ,(along with E.O. 11888) effectively repealed the Gold Reserve Act of 1934. The IEEPA Amendments of 1974 restored the right of U.S. citizens to own and trade gold, ending the prohibition on private gold ownership that had been in place since 1934. Unconstitutionally (in my opinion). Here's a fun fact about the 6102 order: It exempted 1. Customary use in industry, profession, or art: This provision exempted individuals who used gold in their daily work, such as artists, jewelers, dentists, and electricians. 2. Gold coins and certificates in an amount not exceeding $100 belonging to any one person: Individuals were allowed to retain up to $100 worth of gold coins and certificates. 3. Gold coins having a recognized special value to collectors of rare and unusual coins. This is why you can often find gold eagles were made into jewelery (necklaces and bracelets) in antique shops and coins that were deliberated back dated to meet the "collectors" . We will always find a way!!!
Thanks for taking the time to provide the additional details! 💪
mixers don't address taxes?
If you bought KYC, they know how much you bought. Mixing it doesn't take that fact away. Imagine the conversation: Gov: You bought N bitcoin on this date at this price, please pay unrealized gains taxes on it. (mixing seems irrelevant here) The Bitcoiner: Um, but I don't own the coins anymore. Gov: Prove it. Show us your transaction trail and where it was sold, and the CGT you paid at sale time. The Bitcoiner: Actually, I lost the wallet with the coins in a boating accident. I'm not sure how they will try to prove whether someone does in fact own it or not. With AI (or smart pattern analysis algos) it's likely they can identify correlations between KYC fiat income (eg. bank debits) and transactions downstream (post-mixing) of your KYC addresses they know. Off-ramps will be heavily monitored to find these I'm sure. So cash would be the only safe transaction, if they aren't watching with drones / street cameras and AI at that time. Man I'm super black-pilling now. Haven't actually thought about this before..
You want a Monero parallel economy now. But all you get from Bitcoiners is shitting on it. I tell you one thing. Bitcoiners aversion against Monero will hurt them more than the people seeing the value in Monero today. But it will hurt all of us as now is the time to get dark. All data that gets produced today and tomorrow ... will get used against all of us. Now how would transparent and taxable at will Bitcoin where the majority of coins belong to government differentiate itself from a CBDC. Correct it won't. They would use the BTC now in their possession to starve and seize miners getting rid of 21M limit next. Bitcoiners got lazy. They are not thinking anymore in adversarial ways. It's a problem.
Fuk boys your scaring benny! Feels like what you're all saying is that with BTC no matter what the gov will get theirs one way or the other ....
Just try not to buy KYC
Further to that probably via cash aswell? So far all my nonkyc is etransfers, probably easily discernable. Not really kyc free 😔
If they decide they want it they will get it. Question with self custody is how long you think you can hold out and if the pain is worth the hold. Flip side if it’s mass adoption then govt also has a problem, how hard can they push when the populous wants to keep their bitcoin. The real battle is in education and mass adoption (self custody) before the ETF’s take over
201 on how gold was confiscated: nostr:note1aam6v3zae83eew39ajwfyrr8pz48qn9dnsns44fvwp3tm4qp7rtq3rsjyk
Well said.
