Oddbean new post about login | logout #Bitcoin with its public #blockchain is superior to #Monero. Not even mentioning it's first mover advantage which makes it exceedingly difficult for new competitors to catch up and meet or exceed the same momentum. Bitcoin is such a leap beyond anything that came before it, and coming first means it's the most likely to succeed long term compared to any potentially mildly improved assets.
Thought so too for a long time. I think i was delusional. BTC without privacy onchain is the most retarded idea we ever had. Would you store your value on a public transparent ledger with no privacy if the government would mandate it? Hell no. But somehow people think this fundamental flaw of BTC is a advantage. People just hodl and do not use BTC. As soon as they start using it, they see that it is a crappy medium of exchange.
Think about today VS 1000 years from now. Open forced honesty is superior over the long term and levels the playing field. The more value is held in an address the more eyes are on it, the less value is in an address the less eyes are on it. Balance is attractive to eyes, the bigger the balance the more eyes. On the other hand the more individuals who participate in small balance self custody, the better hidden in the noise we each become. This is good for society. The greatest natural defense we see in nature is being a part of a truly large group so any individual is unlikely to be targeted, this has been taken advantage of by humans who just catch every animal at once (such as in a school of fish). But when we combine the numbers of billions of individuals, with the inability to just capture all of them through how difficult it is to actually get access to their Bitcoin even with home invasions and court orders, we benefit from the natural security by numbers. On the other hand, unchecked spending of massive amounts of money is bad for society. With open Blockchain everyone will be very aware of how big wallets move funds to different organizations and people. The entire world ends up auditing the whales in real time. In the current climate where governments have unlimited resources through the theft of value via monetary debasement, sure, the lack of easy privacy is a downside for individuals. But long term it isn't a concern IMO. (My opinion may change, but this is what my view on this currently is)
Nobody is anonymous in the crowd when you can pick non conforming individuals out by analyzing all their transactions. Nobody wants to expose all their financial transactions to the whole world. People will choose the alternative which gives them privacy if the open ledger has been abused enough.
Superior to Monero at what? Being an easy target for surveillance and mining censorship? Tell the darknet markets about your "first mover advantage". They must have missed it. https://image.nostr.build/1f90427dc509f688d750d255d92b72f31f9bd43b8d097617e5418697e49f98a7.jpg https://image.nostr.build/305ddddd998a40b0bf14775adb40415acb42e752fa204feb384947fda6c2a877.jpg https://image.nostr.build/c444a5dca74587682aeb7ea469eec4255bba134d25c5b594c4d21c6f4b3b319f.jpg
Monero < $3,000,000,000 total market cap. Bitcoin > $1,200,000,000,000 total market cap. Monero 24h volume: $100,000,000 Bitcoin 24h volume: $40,000,000,000.
How much of that total Bitcoin market cap and volume is over permissioned white markets, ETFs, custodians, and central exchanges? https://github.com/libbitcoin/libbitcoin-system/wiki/Permissionless-Principle
That I don't know. But even if only 10% of that daily volume was on chain Bitcoin movement, that's still more than Moneros entire market cap so...
You don't understand the point of the question. If custodians and large institutions (AKA intermediaries) are moving Bitcoin, on-chain or IOUs on a centralized database, then why does that daily volume matter? If those transactions are on white markets (following all rules and asking permission) we can discount them as they offer no advantage over fiat. In fact it is worse than fiat in several ways.
No advantage over #FIAT is laughable. #₿ being #debasement proof is it's biggest advantage over FIAT. The government's primary source of power, fueling it's ability to be a surveillance state, is it's ability to steal wealth by printing money which ₿ stops. #Meanwhile BTC having it's block subsidy continually reduced by half every four years, thus pushing the value of every ₿ in existence up due to it's increasing marginal cost of production over time, is it's biggest advantage over #Monero. It used to take 10 min to create ₿50 and they were worth much less, now it takes 160 min (2.66 hours) to create ₿50 and it's worth much more. In 12 years it will take 1280 min (21.33 hours) and in 40 years it will take 163840 min (2730.66 hours). Every time the halving occurs Bitcoin's time-cost of production doubles, dragging along the value of already existing coins with it. This relation to time is it's driving factor for value, and BTC's main reason for being the best store of value ever found. Monero fixing it's subsidy to it's current tail emotions forever means it is never going to become more valuable related to time, so it's value is stagnant and loses to Bitcoin. Despite Monero having better on chain privacy, it's inability to increase it's value relative to finite human time does nothing to fix our financial system. In addition, it will not bring about a new age of global abundance through incentivising the production of electricity globally (like Bitcoin does) to give our species the energy it needs to grow beyond our current abilities. Monero is very useful to those who use the darknet and prioritize privacy above all else, it is not very useful at freeing humanity from it's self imposed bondage. But Bitcoin is.
Yes, and all those advantages only apply when you are using Bitcoin in a self-custodial manner and transacting without permission (BLACK MARKETS by definition) If a custodian has my Bitcoin and is issuing me Bitcoin IOUs they can still inflate supply for those users (fractional reserve). If I'm making white market transactions I'm following any arbitrary rules the state wants for those transactions. That also applies to bitcoin transactions made on white markets. This is what I meant by saying Bitcoin has no advantage over fiat on white markets. It's slower, more expensive, much less accepted, and allows the general public to see your financial transactions (at least you have privacy from the general public with digital fiat) "The government's primary source of power, fueling it's ability to be a surveillance state" Ironically, Bitcoin also enables state surveillance because it is a transparent blockchain.
I agree that custodian Bitcoin (or anything really) is not much better than FIAT if they can issue more IOUs than assets they actually have. I agree that for the time being due to custodians and KYC market places Bitcoin is easier to track due to its transparent block chain, enabling surveillance states. Self custodial non-KYC Bitcoin is the best overall. At this stage, with few businesses accepting ₿ and most people owning it in KYC custodians, it has large disadvantages. It's inevitable that people will break free of the custodians and KYC though once it really takes off and we can transact person to person more, but I acknowledge that until that time it's not much better for privacy than FIAT. Thanks for the friendly discourse! 🙂
